Mississippi State @ Tennessee: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Tennessee · Conference game

Weather at kickoff64°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Mississippi State

2-7 · Power #72

final

Final

Tennessee

7-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

TENN -26.5

✓ MSST W

Total

61.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

MSST 17–44 TENN

✓ TENN (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -25

CloseTENN -26.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTENN -25

1.5 → TENN

CloseTENN -26.5

1.5 pts toward Tennessee

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TENN -25 · closed TENN -26.5 · moved 1.5 toward TENNmodel TENN -29.5

model TENN -29.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 25.5–27.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 48% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (90 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTENN -25

CloseTENN -26.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TENN as a 26.5-point home favorite against MSST, the favorite won 10, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TENN won 33–14; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 61.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 94%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.6 against an average line of 25.7; 54.2 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ORE vs CAL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & situation	-25.5	63–19	W	O61.5
Close	PSU vs CMU 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-28	33–14	L	U61.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-24	40–14	W	U58
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-24	42–7	W	U54
Close	WASH vs ASU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & spread	-28	15–7	L	U60
Close	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Close	MICH vs NIU 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-27.5	63–10	W	O55
Close	MISS vs VAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-24	33–7	W	U63
Close	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-24.5	35–21	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSST WWWLW	5-3	63%	2-1	3-2
TENN WLLWL	5-3	63%	3-2	4-3

Venue/role: MSST away, as underdog; TENN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSST UOOOO	6-2	75%	2-7
TENN UUUUO	4-4	50%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 57.5–65.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSST	2-8 20%	5-3-1 63%	6-3 67%
TENN	9-1 90%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSST+1.2 →−3.5▼ 4.7#84

TENN+13.9 →+20.4▲ 6.5#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MSST

Longer bar = better

TENN

#71

Offense

TENN better ▶

#30

#129

Defense

TENN better ▶

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

TENN better ▶

+0.4 #45

68 plays #57

Pace

TENN faster ▶

75 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSST has the ball

Advantage: TENN defense

	MSST off	TENN def	Edge
Points / game	29.1 #60	12.4 #5	TENN
Yards / play	5.88 #64	4.22 #3	TENN
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	−0.14 #3	TENN
Success rate	41% #101	36% #9	TENN

When TENN has the ball

Advantage: TENN offense

	TENN off	MSST def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #12	34.6 #122	TENN
Yards / play	6.35 #35	6.54 #124	TENN
PPA / play	+0.20 #39	+0.31 #133	TENN
Success rate	46% #32	53% #136	TENN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSST scoring against the TENN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSST scored	4.2 #103	9.0 #53	13.2 #83	7.9 #35	8.0 #44	15.9 #32
TENN allowed	2.0 #8	1.6 #2	3.6 #2	3.4 #16	5.4 #45	8.8 #17

TENN scoring against the MSST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TENN scored	9.8 #12	9.8 #41	19.5 #20	10.6 #8	7.3 #61	17.9 #15
MSST allowed	8.3 #122	13.1 #130	21.4 #129	5.7 #70	7.4 #93	13.1 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.