Georgia @ Ole Miss: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Ole Miss · Conference game

Weather at kickoff69°F5 mphgusts 12Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Georgia

7-1 · Power #8

final

Final

Ole Miss

7-2 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

UGA -1.5

✓ MISS W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

UGA 28–28 MISS

✗ UGA (51%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -2.5

CloseUGA -1.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUGA -2.5

1 → MISS

CloseUGA -1.5

1 pt toward Ole Miss

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UGA -2.5 · closed UGA -1.5 · moved 1 toward MISSmodel MISS -4

model MISS -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 52% (83 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 53% (92 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUGA -2.5

CloseUGA -1.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UGA as a 1.5-point road favorite at MISS, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MISS won 28–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 3.7 against an average line of 2.6; 56.9 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	UGA @ ALA 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2	34–41	L	O50
Close	OSU @ PSU 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-3	20–13	W	U47.5
Loose	TA&M @ MISS 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-1.25	19–29	L	U57.5
Loose	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Loose	USC @ WASH 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread & total	-2	21–26	L	U55
Loose	TEX @ KSU 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-3	34–27	W	O54.5
Loose	TENN @ MIZ 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & rest	-2	7–36	L	U58.75
Loose	LSU @ MISS 2023 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	49–55	L	O67
Loose	FSU @ CLEM 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar total & rest	-2	31–24	W	P55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UGA LLLWL	2-6	25%	1-2	1-6
MISS LWLLW	6-3	67%	3-2	—

Venue/role: UGA away, as favorite; MISS home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UGA OUOUO	3-5	38%	7-1
MISS UUUUO	2-7	22%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UGA	8-2 80%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
MISS	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UGA 34–15 MISS (1 tied) UGA leads · 50 games since 1940 · MISS has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 11 2023	Ole Miss 17 @ Georgia 52	UGA -11	UGA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UGA+24.2 →+22.3▼ 1.9#5

MISS+12.8 →+23.1▲ 10.3#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

UGA

Longer bar = better

MISS

#38

Offense

MISS better ▶

#14

Defense

Even

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

MISS better ▶

+0.8 #21

67 plays #65

Pace

MISS faster ▶

72 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UGA has the ball

Advantage: MISS defense

	UGA off	MISS def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #33	13.2 #6	MISS
Yards / play	6.41 #33	4.41 #4	MISS
PPA / play	+0.18 #50	−0.04 #8	MISS
Success rate	46% #35	35% #5	MISS

When MISS has the ball

Even matchup

	MISS off	UGA def	Edge
Points / game	42.1 #4	17.3 #14	Even
Yards / play	7.71 #1	4.72 #13	Even
PPA / play	+0.38 #6	0.00 #21	Even
Success rate	49% #11	35% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UGA scoring against the MISS defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UGA scored	5.1 #84	8.6 #65	13.8 #74	9.3 #17	10.1 #9	19.4 #8
MISS allowed	1.8 #6	5.6 #31	7.3 #7	2.6 #9	2.7 #4	5.2 #4

MISS scoring against the UGA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MISS scored	12.6 #1	12.2 #9	24.8 #2	11.8 #4	5.2 #116	17.0 #22
UGA allowed	3.8 #33	4.0 #8	7.8 #10	5.6 #66	3.9 #14	9.5 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.