Ohio State @ Penn State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Penn State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

6-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Penn State

7-0 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

OSU -3.5

✓ OSU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 27–24 PSU

✓ OSU (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -3.5

CloseOSU -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -3.5

no move

CloseOSU -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -3.5 · unchangedmodel OSU -3.5 matches the line

model OSU -3.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 44% (102 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -3.5

CloseOSU -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 3.5-point road favorite at PSU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 47.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.4 against an average line of 3.8; 47.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ PSU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	24–15	W	U44.5
Very close	CLEM @ FSU 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	34–28	W	O51
Close	OSU @ ORE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	31–32	L	O54.5
Close	MICH @ NEB 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O50
Close	MICH @ PSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–17	W	U48
Close	MSST @ LSU 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	16–31	L	U53
Close	ND @ DUKE 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-5.5	21–14	W	U52.5
Close	ND @ LOU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-6	20–33	L	U54
Close	ALA @ TENN 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	17–24	L	U57.5
Close	CIN @ ND 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-2	24–13	W	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU LWWLL	3-4	43%	1-1	3-4
PSU –LLLW	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; PSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU OUUOU	4-3	57%	6-1
PSU –UUOU	2-4	33%	7-0

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PSU	9-1 90%	4-5 44%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

OSU 1–0 PSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Penn State 12 @ Ohio State 20	OSU -4	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+24.6▲ 3.3#1

PSU+18.8 →+19.1▲ 0.3#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

OSU

Longer bar = better

PSU

Offense

Even

#15

#10

Defense

Even

+0.4 #38

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #50

64 plays #96

Pace

Even

65 plays #83

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Even matchup

	OSU off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	40.3 #10	14.3 #8	Even
Yards / play	7.37 #5	4.48 #7	Even
PPA / play	+0.48 #2	−0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	54% #4	34% #2	Even

When PSU has the ball

Even matchup

	PSU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.3 #31	11.9 #4	OSU
Yards / play	7.09 #7	4.33 #4	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #14	−0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	52% #6	36% #14	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.4 #27	12.4 #9	20.9 #16	13.0 #1	6.4 #85	19.4 #8
PSU allowed	3.9 #38	6.1 #41	10.0 #34	0.9 #1	3.4 #11	4.3 #2

PSU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	3.4 #116	11.1 #22	14.6 #60	9.4 #19	8.9 #25	18.3 #11
OSU allowed	2.3 #10	5.1 #25	7.4 #10	0.9 #1	3.6 #14	4.4 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.