Indiana @ Michigan State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Michigan State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F1 mphgusts 7DryWeather watch ›

Indiana

8-0 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Michigan State

4-4 · Power #70

final

Closing spread

IU -7.5

✓ IU W

Total

53.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 29–21 MSU

✓ IU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -7

CloseIU -7.5

Total50.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenIU -7

0.5 → IU

CloseIU -7.5

0.5 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open50.5

▲ 3

Close53.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened IU -7 · closed IU -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward IUmodel IU -12

model IU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 54% (81 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenIU -7

CloseIU -7.5

Total50.5 → 53.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IU as a 7.5-point road favorite at MSU, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: IU won 47–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 53.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 7.3; 52.7 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	TCU @ ISU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	14–27	L	U52.5
Close	ISU @ WVU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–38	L	O49
Close	KSU @ KU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–27	L	U59.5
Close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	52–40	W	O51
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	MD @ MSU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–9	W	U52.5
Close	LOU @ BC 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	31–27	L	O54
Close	LOU @ NCSU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	13–10	L	U55.5
Close	UNLV @ ORST 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	33–25	W	U61.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WWWWW	7-1	88%	2-0	7-1
MSU WLWWL	4-4	50%	1-3	4-2

Venue/role: IU away, as favorite; MSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU OOOOU	6-2	75%	8-0
MSU UUUOO	3-5	38%	4-4

Went over in Q4. Of 297 earlier overs in games with totals 49.5–57.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
MSU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IU 0–1 MSU MSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · MSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Michigan State 24 @ Indiana 21	IU -3.5	MSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−3.2 →+15.9▲ 19.1#12

MSU−3.8 →+2.8▲ 6.6#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

Longer bar = better

MSU

Offense

◀ IU better

#87

#15

Defense

◀ IU better

#51

+1.0 #15

Turnovers

◀ IU better

−0.9 #120

68 plays #64

Pace

◀ IU faster

62 plays #113

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Advantage: IU offense

	IU off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	46.5 #2	21.3 #38	IU
Yards / play	7.22 #6	5.23 #51	IU
PPA / play	+0.39 #7	+0.09 #63	IU
Success rate	57% #2	40% #51	IU

When MSU has the ball

Advantage: IU defense

	MSU off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #118	14.1 #7	IU
Yards / play	5.86 #67	4.48 #9	IU
PPA / play	+0.07 #101	−0.02 #14	IU
Success rate	44% #60	38% #29	IU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IU scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	10.9 #6	13.0 #5	23.9 #4	10.0 #15	12.6 #3	22.6 #2
MSU allowed	3.0 #19	6.6 #51	9.6 #30	7.3 #105	4.4 #21	11.6 #61

MSU scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	4.9 #89	7.5 #86	12.4 #94	2.0 #130	6.6 #79	8.6 #122
IU allowed	0.0 #1	7.8 #76	7.8 #11	3.9 #25	2.5 #2	6.4 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.