Texas Tech @ Iowa State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Iowa State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F10 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

5-3 · Power #46

▲ winner

Final

Iowa State

7-0 · Power #24

final

Closing spread

ISU -14.5

✓ TTU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 20–34 ISU

✗ ISU (84%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -15.5

CloseISU -14.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -15.5

1 → TTU

CloseISU -14.5

1 pt toward Texas Tech

Total

Open57.5

▼ 2

Close55.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -15.5 · closed ISU -14.5 · moved 1 toward TTUmodel ISU -13

model ISU -13

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 53% (64 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -15.5

CloseISU -14.5

Total57.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ISU as a 14.5-point home favorite against TTU, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 23–22 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 55.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.8 against an average line of 12.8; 63.6 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAY vs TTU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14	27–24	L	U51.5
Very close	OKST vs TCU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-11	63–17	W	O54
Very close	ORE vs CAL 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-13.5	24–17	L	U53.5
Close	CLEM vs GT 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-15.5	42–21	W	O55
Close	MSST vs AUB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	39–33	L	O50.5
Close	MSU vs MD 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-11.5	40–21	W	O60.5
Close	UCF vs COLO 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	21–48	L	O60.5
Close	MIZ vs FLA 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-12.5	33–31	L	O56.5
Close	TEX vs UTSA 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-13	41–20	W	O57
Close	KSU vs KU 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-12	47–27	W	O62

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU WLWLW	3-4	43%	2-1	2-0
ISU WWWWL	5-2	71%	2-2	4-2

Venue/role: TTU away, as underdog; ISU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU UOUOO	4-3	57%	5-3
ISU OUOUO	4-3	57%	7-0

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 15. 51% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
ISU	8-2 80%	6-3-1 67%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+4.7 →+3.3▼ 1.4#56

ISU+4.2 →+12.8▲ 8.6#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TTU

Longer bar = better

ISU

#43

Offense

Even

#52

#115

Defense

ISU better ▶

#28

+0.3 #57

Turnovers

ISU better ▶

+1.3 #7

76 plays #5

Pace

◀ TTU faster

70 plays #33

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	38.1 #17	14.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.98 #60	4.95 #29	ISU
PPA / play	+0.20 #38	−0.03 #10	ISU
Success rate	44% #57	40% #62	Even

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: ISU offense

	ISU off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	31.7 #45	36.0 #124	ISU
Yards / play	6.28 #43	6.61 #125	ISU
PPA / play	+0.21 #35	+0.17 #102	ISU
Success rate	42% #83	44% #108	ISU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	10.4 #10	12.6 #6	23.0 #7	6.5 #64	7.8 #48	14.3 #52
ISU allowed	4.0 #41	4.7 #15	8.7 #21	2.9 #11	2.9 #5	5.7 #6

ISU scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	5.9 #74	7.7 #83	13.6 #81	7.9 #33	10.3 #10	18.1 #13
TTU allowed	7.4 #112	8.9 #90	16.3 #108	8.0 #114	11.0 #131	19.0 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.