Colorado @ Texas Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 4:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Texas Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff63°F13 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Colorado

6-2 · Power #25

▲ winner

Final

Texas Tech

6-3 · Power #46

final

Closing spread

COLO -4.5

✓ COLO W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

COLO 30–27 TTU

✓ COLO (60%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -3

CloseCOLO -4.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCOLO -3

1.5 → COLO

CloseCOLO -4.5

1.5 pts toward Colorado

Total

Open62.5

no move

Close62.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened COLO -3 · closed COLO -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward COLOmodel COLO -0.5

model COLO -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 47% (73 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (21 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCOLO -3

CloseCOLO -4.5

Total62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like COLO as a 4.5-point road favorite at TTU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: COLO won 41–27; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 62.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 2 against an average line of 3.2; 57.6 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ UCF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	3–45	L	U64
Very close	ARK @ LSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	16–13	P	U59.5
Very close	PITT @ UNC 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	34–24	W	U62.5
Very close	UCLA @ USC 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	62–33	W	O65.5
Close	LIB @ WKU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-4	42–29	W	O61.5
Close	GT @ DUKE 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	31–27	L	U60.5
Close	MIA @ FSU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	28–31	L	U61.25
Close	KSU @ TTU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-1	25–24	P	U60.5
Close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.25	13–41	L	U57.5
Close	ORST @ WSU 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-4	24–31	L	U59

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
COLO WWWWW	6-1	86%	3-0	3-1
TTU LWLWW	4-4	50%	1-3	3-0

Venue/role: COLO away, as favorite; TTU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
COLO OOOUO	5-2	71%	6-2
TTU OUOOU	4-4	50%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 124 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
COLO	6-4 60%	7-2 78%	6-3 67%
TTU	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

COLO+0.6 →+7.5▲ 6.9#34

TTU+4.7 →+4.2▼ 0.5#50

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

COLO

Longer bar = better

TTU

#41

Offense

Even

#50

Defense

◀ COLO better

#109

+0.5 #36

Turnovers

◀ COLO better

+0.2 #60

67 plays #67

Pace

TTU faster ▶

76 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When COLO has the ball

Advantage: COLO offense

	COLO off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #43	34.4 #120	COLO
Yards / play	6.03 #53	6.50 #122	COLO
PPA / play	+0.19 #42	+0.15 #93	COLO
Success rate	47% #24	44% #100	COLO

When TTU has the ball

Even matchup

	TTU off	COLO def	Edge
Points / game	36.4 #20	22.0 #44	TTU
Yards / play	5.87 #69	5.44 #64	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #46	+0.06 #45	Even
Success rate	44% #63	40% #45	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

COLO scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
COLO scored	8.8 #24	8.0 #74	16.8 #43	6.9 #50	6.9 #76	13.8 #59
TTU allowed	6.9 #106	9.0 #97	15.9 #105	7.1 #103	10.8 #131	17.9 #129

TTU scoring against the COLO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	10.3 #6	11.2 #20	21.6 #9	6.6 #57	7.6 #52	14.1 #53
COLO allowed	7.3 #111	8.3 #80	15.5 #101	2.1 #5	4.4 #20	6.5 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.