Texas Tech @ Oklahoma State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Sat, Nov 23, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Oklahoma State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F13 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Texas Tech

6-4 · Power #46

▲ winner

Final

Oklahoma State

3-7 · Power #87

final

Closing spread

TTU -4.5

✓ TTU W

Total

62.5

▲ Over · 104 pts

Model before kickoff

TTU 33–29 OKST

✓ TTU (63%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -3.5

CloseTTU -4.5

Total68.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTTU -3.5

1 → TTU

CloseTTU -4.5

1 pt toward Texas Tech

Total

Open68.5

▼ 6

Close62.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TTU -3.5 · closed TTU -4.5 · moved 1 toward TTUmodel TTU -4.5 matches the line

model TTU -4.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 48% (80 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (103 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTTU -3.5

CloseTTU -4.5

Total68.5 → 62.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TTU as a 4.5-point road favorite at OKST, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TTU won 56–48; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 104 points went over 62.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 4.3; 55.9 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WMU @ EMU 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-6	21–22	L	U66
Close	TLSA @ TULN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-3	20–13	W	U55.5
Close	WMU @ NIU 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-7	42–21	W	O58.5
Loose	SMU @ TLSA 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-1	45–34	W	O63.5
Loose	ARK @ AUB 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	41–27	W	O60
Loose	WSU @ FRES 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	25–17	W	U60.5
Loose	CIN @ SMU 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-3.5	29–27	L	U59.5
Loose	NIU @ BUFF 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & total	-1.75	33–27	W	O59
Loose	OKST @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-6.5	43–30	W	O57.5
Loose	CAL @ STAN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & spread	-6.5	27–15	W	U53.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TTU WLWWL	4-5	44%	3-1	1-4
OKST LWLLL	3-7	30%	1-4	1-5

Venue/role: TTU away, as favorite; OKST home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TTU UOOUO	5-4	56%	6-4
OKST UOOOU	6-4	60%	3-7

Went over in Q3. Of 133 earlier overs in games with totals 58.5–66.5, 28% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TTU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
OKST	3-7 30%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TTU 25–24 OKST (3 tied) TTU leads · 52 games since 1935 · TTU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TTU+4.7 →+3.3▼ 1.4#56

OKST+4.1 →−3.2▼ 7.3#80

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

TTU

Longer bar = better

OKST

#60

Offense

Even

#62

#108

Defense

◀ TTU better

#123

−0.1 #79

Turnovers

◀ TTU better

−0.4 #98

77 plays #4

Pace

◀ TTU faster

68 plays #61

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TTU has the ball

Advantage: TTU offense

	TTU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #19	31.9 #112	TTU
Yards / play	5.71 #71	6.95 #134	TTU
PPA / play	+0.14 #66	+0.28 #130	TTU
Success rate	42% #82	46% #115	TTU

When OKST has the ball

Advantage: OKST offense

	OKST off	TTU def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #72	35.1 #124	OKST
Yards / play	5.68 #74	6.35 #118	OKST
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.15 #97	OKST
Success rate	44% #58	43% #92	OKST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TTU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TTU scored	10.6 #5	10.1 #39	20.7 #12	6.6 #53	7.5 #53	14.1 #59
OKST allowed	5.8 #87	10.7 #120	16.5 #111	5.9 #75	9.5 #121	15.4 #108

OKST scoring against the TTU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	3.3 #123	9.4 #49	12.7 #86	4.6 #102	9.7 #14	14.3 #53
TTU allowed	6.2 #97	9.1 #97	15.3 #102	8.5 #122	10.7 #130	19.2 #132

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.