Oklahoma State @ TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at TCU · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Oklahoma State

3-6 · Power #87

final

Final

TCU

5-4 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -10.5

✓ TCU W

Total

69.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

OKST 28–39 TCU

✓ TCU (77%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -12.5

CloseTCU -10.5

Total66.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -12.5

2 → OKST

CloseTCU -10.5

2 pts toward Oklahoma State

Total

Open66.5

▲ 3

Close69.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -12.5 · closed TCU -10.5 · moved 2 toward OKSTmodel TCU -10.5 matches the line

model TCU -10.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–11.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 39% (79 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (73 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -12.5

CloseTCU -10.5

Total66.5 → 69.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 10.5-point home favorite against OKST, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 38–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 69.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 9.5; 61.8 points a game (usually 55.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UVA vs DUKE 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	48–0	W	U69.5
Very close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-8.5	48–27	W	O70
Very close	UTSA vs UNT 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	31–27	L	U73
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-9	30–42	L	O64.5
Close	OU vs OKST 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	28–13	W	U67.5
Close	CCU vs GASO 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-10	34–30	L	U69.75
Close	TXST vs ARST 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	41–9	W	U66
Close	UTSA vs UAB 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9	41–20	W	U67
Close	MEM vs UNT 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	52–44	L	O67.5
Close	UVA vs VT 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	24–29	L	U63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OKST LLWLL	3-6	33%	2-2	1-4
TCU WLWLL	2-6	25%	0-4	0-5

Venue/role: OKST away, as underdog; TCU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OKST OUOOO	6-3	67%	3-6
TCU OUUOO	5-3	63%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 33 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 65.5–73.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OKST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
TCU	5-5 50%	2-7 22%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OKST+4.1 →−2.3▼ 6.4#74

TCU+7.0 →+5.2▼ 1.8#46

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

OKST

Longer bar = better

TCU

#66

Offense

TCU better ▶

#33

#118

Defense

TCU better ▶

#76

−0.1 #81

Turnovers

◀ OKST better

−1.2 #133

67 plays #71

Pace

TCU faster ▶

69 plays #42

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OKST has the ball

Even matchup

	OKST off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #55	29.2 #100	OKST
Yards / play	5.76 #74	5.17 #42	TCU
PPA / play	+0.18 #49	+0.16 #97	OKST
Success rate	42% #84	41% #66	Even

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	OKST def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #37	31.2 #107	TCU
Yards / play	6.32 #40	6.92 #133	TCU
PPA / play	+0.22 #29	+0.25 #126	TCU
Success rate	47% #24	44% #106	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OKST scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OKST scored	3.7 #117	10.4 #27	14.1 #67	4.4 #104	10.0 #10	14.4 #49
TCU allowed	6.1 #90	9.0 #98	15.1 #95	7.3 #107	6.8 #79	14.1 #97

TCU scoring against the OKST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	6.6 #51	10.2 #33	16.8 #42	7.4 #41	8.4 #30	15.9 #32
OKST allowed	5.3 #64	10.3 #117	15.7 #103	5.8 #72	9.8 #123	15.6 #113

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.