Northern Illinois @ Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Wed, Nov 6, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Western Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

4-4 · Power #74

▲ winner

Final

Western Michigan

5-3 · Power #107

final

Closing spread

NIU -2.5

✓ NIU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 70 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 27–24 WMU

✓ NIU (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -1.5

CloseNIU -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWMU -1.5

4 → NIU

CloseNIU -2.5

4 pts toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WMU -1.5 · closed NIU -2.5 · moved 4 toward NIUmodel NIU -4

model NIU -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (126 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenWMU -1.5

CloseNIU -2.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 2.5-point road favorite at WMU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 42–28; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 70 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.9 against an average line of 3.2; 56.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MRSH @ GASO 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-6	23–10	W	U52.5
Very close	VT @ BC 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	48–22	W	O48.5
Very close	USA @ TXST 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	31–33	L	O52.5
Close	CSU @ HAW 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-3	45–50	L	O53.75
Close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Close	ISU @ BAY 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	30–18	W	O47
Close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Close	SC @ MIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-0.75	28–31	L	O55.75
Close	UNM @ UTEP 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–20	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WWWLL	5-3	63%	3-1	2-3
WMU LLWWW	4-4	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: NIU away, as favorite; WMU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UOUUO	4-4	50%	4-4
WMU UOOOO	6-2	75%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 349 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
WMU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NIU 1–0 WMU NIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 14 2023	Western Michigan 0 @ Northern Illinois 24	NIU -4.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−3.0▲ 4.8#79

WMU−10.3 →−9.7▲ 0.6#106

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

NIU

Longer bar = better

WMU

#90

Offense

WMU better ▶

#21

#17

Defense

◀ NIU better

#120

−0.9 #120

Turnovers

WMU better ▶

+0.9 #17

74 plays #9

Pace

◀ NIU faster

62 plays #117

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	23.4 #106	33.8 #118	Even
Yards / play	5.39 #96	6.36 #119	NIU
PPA / play	+0.10 #89	+0.22 #116	NIU
Success rate	43% #70	49% #128	NIU

When WMU has the ball

Even matchup

	WMU off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #28	17.6 #15	Even
Yards / play	6.61 #22	4.58 #8	Even
PPA / play	+0.26 #16	0.00 #22	Even
Success rate	47% #19	37% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	6.3 #65	7.3 #92	13.5 #79	2.4 #127	7.5 #56	9.9 #115
WMU allowed	7.8 #115	9.5 #107	17.3 #112	6.9 #98	9.6 #123	16.5 #119

WMU scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	7.4 #38	12.1 #9	19.5 #19	7.4 #42	7.1 #66	14.5 #48
NIU allowed	4.8 #57	4.8 #16	9.5 #27	3.6 #20	4.1 #17	7.8 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.