Purdue @ Ohio State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Ohio State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Purdue

1-7 · Power #117

final

Final

Ohio State

7-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

OSU -37.5

✓ OSU W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

PUR 8–46 OSU

✓ OSU (100%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -38

CloseOSU -37.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -38

0.5 → PUR

CloseOSU -37.5

0.5 pts toward Purdue

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -38 · closed OSU -37.5 · moved 0.5 toward PURmodel OSU -41.5

model OSU -41.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 35.5–39.5 since 2023: won 100%, covered 60% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -38

CloseOSU -37.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 37.5-point home favorite against PUR, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 45–0; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 100%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 61%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 43.3 against an average line of 38.4; 56.9 points a game (usually 57). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UGA vs VAN 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-37.5	55–0	W	U56.5
Close	FLA vs VAN 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-39	42–0	W	U60
Close	UGA vs GT 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-36.5	37–14	L	O49
Close	OSU vs IU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-40	56–14	W	O62
Close	TENN vs CONN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-35.5	59–3	W	O55.5
Close	UGA vs UAB 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-41	49–21	L	O56
Close	OSU vs WMU 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-37.5	56–0	W	O54.5
Loose	UGA vs BALL 2023 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest	-42	45–3	P	U52.5
Loose	UGA vs MIZ 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-40	43–6	L	U59
Loose	ISU vs KU 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-34.5	59–7	W	O57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PUR LLWLL	2-6	25%	1-2	1-5
OSU WWLLW	4-4	50%	2-3	4-4

Venue/role: PUR away, as underdog; OSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PUR UOOUO	5-3	63%	1-7
OSU UUOUU	4-4	50%	7-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PUR	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
OSU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PUR 0–1 OSU OSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · OSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Ohio State 41 @ Purdue 7	OSU -17.5	OSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PUR+1.0 →−10.5▼ 11.5#109

OSU+21.3 →+25.0▲ 3.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

PUR

Longer bar = better

OSU

#90

Offense

OSU better ▶

#129

Defense

OSU better ▶

#10

−0.6 #110

Turnovers

OSU better ▶

+0.3 #51

56 plays #136

Pace

OSU faster ▶

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	PUR off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #122	12.0 #3	OSU
Yards / play	5.99 #60	4.42 #5	OSU
PPA / play	+0.08 #99	−0.02 #15	OSU
Success rate	43% #79	36% #16	OSU

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	37.8 #15	36.9 #129	OSU
Yards / play	7.15 #4	6.74 #130	OSU
PPA / play	+0.43 #3	+0.34 #136	OSU
Success rate	53% #3	47% #121	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PUR scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.3 #134	4.6 #126	5.9 #134	5.5 #80	8.1 #41	13.6 #62
OSU allowed	3.3 #23	4.5 #13	7.8 #9	1.1 #1	3.1 #5	4.3 #1

OSU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.3 #29	11.8 #12	20.0 #16	11.8 #5	6.0 #87	17.8 #15
PUR allowed	8.6 #126	9.1 #103	17.8 #116	6.0 #78	11.5 #132	17.5 #126

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.