Ohio State @ Northwestern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Northwestern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Ohio State

8-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Northwestern

4-5 · Power #83

final

Closing spread

OSU -29.5

✓ NU W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

OSU 36–7 NU

✓ OSU (98%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -30

CloseOSU -29.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOSU -30

0.5 → NU

CloseOSU -29.5

0.5 pts toward Northwestern

Total

Open44.5

no move

Close44.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OSU -30 · closed OSU -29.5 · moved 0.5 toward NUmodel OSU -27.5

model OSU -27.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOSU -30

CloseOSU -29.5

Total44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OSU as a 29.5-point road favorite at NU, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: OSU won 31–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 95%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 24.6 against an average line of 27.5; 52.8 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MICH @ RUTG 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-26.5	52–17	W	O45
Close	PSU @ NU 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-27	41–13	W	O46
Close	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · close	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Loose	UGA @ UK 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-22.5	16–6	L	U47.5
Loose	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · loose	-26	56–23	W	O50
Loose	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Loose	UGA @ MIZ 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-30.75	26–22	L	U54.25
Loose	ORE @ ASU 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-22	49–13	W	O53.5
Loose	UGA @ GT 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & situation	-35.5	45–0	W	U54.5
Loose	OSU @ MSU 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & total	-23.5	38–7	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
OSU WLLWW	5-4	56%	2-1	5-4
NU LWLLW	3-5	38%	1-4	2-3

Venue/role: OSU away, as favorite; NU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
OSU UOUUU	4-5	44%	8-1
NU OOUOO	5-3	63%	4-5

Stayed under: it needed 7 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OSU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
NU	5-5 50%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

OSU+21.3 →+25.1▲ 3.8#1

NU0.0 →−2.9▼ 2.9#76

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

OSU

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ OSU better

#126

Defense

◀ OSU better

#57

+0.4 #38

Turnovers

◀ OSU better

+0.2 #58

64 plays #95

Pace

◀ OSU faster

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When OSU has the ball

Advantage: OSU offense

	OSU off	NU def	Edge
Points / game	38.6 #11	21.9 #40	OSU
Yards / play	7.08 #4	5.23 #44	OSU
PPA / play	+0.45 #1	+0.06 #46	OSU
Success rate	54% #3	44% #99	OSU

When NU has the ball

Advantage: OSU defense

	NU off	OSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.2 #125	10.7 #2	OSU
Yards / play	4.79 #129	4.32 #5	OSU
PPA / play	−0.03 #125	−0.03 #10	OSU
Success rate	37% #124	36% #17	OSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

OSU scoring against the NU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OSU scored	8.1 #27	12.0 #11	20.1 #14	12.3 #2	6.1 #89	18.4 #10
NU allowed	3.3 #27	7.1 #57	10.4 #35	5.3 #62	4.7 #23	10.0 #28

NU scoring against the OSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NU scored	3.3 #119	5.6 #122	8.9 #126	3.3 #123	5.6 #105	8.9 #121
OSU allowed	2.9 #18	4.0 #9	6.9 #6	1.0 #1	2.8 #4	3.8 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.