Texas @ Arkansas: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arkansas · Conference game

Weather at kickoff59°F10 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

Texas

8-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Arkansas

5-4 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

TEX -13.5

✓ ARK W

Total

56.5

▼ Under · 30 pts

Model before kickoff

TEX 33–20 ARK

✓ TEX (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -16.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTEX -16.5

3 → ARK

CloseTEX -13.5

3 pts toward Arkansas

Total

Open56.5

no move

Close56.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TEX -16.5 · closed TEX -13.5 · moved 3 toward ARKmodel TEX -14.5

model TEX -14.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–14.5 since 2023: won 83%, covered 50% (46 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (79 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTEX -16.5

CloseTEX -13.5

Total56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TEX as a 13.5-point road favorite at ARK, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: TEX won 20–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 30 points stayed under 56.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 15.4 against an average line of 13.1; 58.8 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	39–38	L	O54
Close	UGA @ MSST 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-16.25	45–19	W	O53
Close	MICH @ MD 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	31–24	L	O50.5
Close	OSU @ PUR 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-17.5	41–7	W	U53
Close	MIA @ GT 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	23–28	L	U65
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & total	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	ALA @ LSU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form	-13.5	31–32	L	O56.5
Close	PSU @ MD 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	51–15	W	O50.5
Close	ALA @ MSST 2021 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-17.5	49–9	W	U59.5
Close	ALA @ MISS 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	30–24	L	U65.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEX LWLLW	6-3	67%	1-1	6-3
ARK WWLWL	6-2	75%	1-2	4-2

Venue/role: TEX away, as favorite; ARK home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEX UUUUO	4-5	44%	8-1
ARK UUUOO	4-4	50%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 37 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 52.5–60.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEX	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
ARK	5-5 50%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEX+19.1 →+23.7▲ 4.6#4

ARK+3.1 →+8.0▲ 4.9#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TEX

Longer bar = better

ARK

#20

Offense

Even

#24

Defense

◀ TEX better

#79

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ TEX better

−0.3 #92

69 plays #35

Pace

Even

71 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEX has the ball

Advantage: TEX offense

	TEX off	ARK def	Edge
Points / game	38.9 #10	26.3 #78	TEX
Yards / play	6.71 #18	5.87 #92	TEX
PPA / play	+0.25 #18	+0.11 #71	TEX
Success rate	46% #33	42% #76	TEX

When ARK has the ball

Even matchup

	ARK off	TEX def	Edge
Points / game	33.0 #36	12.1 #4	TEX
Yards / play	6.84 #12	3.95 #1	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #29	−0.15 #2	TEX
Success rate	48% #18	36% #12	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TEX scoring against the ARK defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEX scored	9.3 #16	13.1 #6	22.4 #6	8.8 #22	7.7 #51	16.4 #28
ARK allowed	4.6 #50	6.8 #49	11.3 #55	7.9 #112	6.2 #66	14.1 #101

ARK scoring against the TEX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARK scored	9.1 #18	8.9 #55	18.0 #29	6.1 #64	8.9 #21	15.0 #42
TEX allowed	1.9 #8	4.2 #11	6.1 #3	2.2 #5	3.8 #10	6.0 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.