Miami @ Georgia Tech: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Georgia Tech · Conference game

Weather at kickoff67°F11 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Miami

9-0 · Power #9

final

Final

Georgia Tech

5-4 · Power #36

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIA -9.5

✓ GT W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 35–25 GT

✗ MIA (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -13

CloseMIA -9.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -13

3.5 → GT

CloseMIA -9.5

3.5 pts toward Georgia Tech

Total

Open63.5

▲ 1

Close64.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -13 · closed MIA -9.5 · moved 3.5 toward GTmodel MIA -12.5

model MIA -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 76%, covered 50% (49 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the underdog: that team covered 62% (26 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -13

CloseMIA -9.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 9.5-point road favorite at GT, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: GT won 28–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 51 points stayed under 64.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 8.8; 65.7 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OU @ OKST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-6	24–27	L	U62.5
Close	OU @ KU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-7	33–38	L	O66.5
Close	ALA @ MISS 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-11	30–24	L	U65.5
Close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & spread	-10	31–21	P	U59
Close	OU @ NEB 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-10.5	49–14	W	U65.5
Close	MIA @ CAL 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	39–38	L	O54
Close	USC @ CAL 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	50–49	L	O67.5
Close	FLA @ UK 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7.5	13–20	L	U56.5
Close	LSU @ MIZ 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-6	49–39	W	O63.5
Loose	TEX @ KU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation	-9	55–14	W	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLWWW	6-2	75%	3-1	6-2
GT L–WLL	3-4	43%	1-0	1-3

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; GT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA OOOUO	7-1	88%	9-0
GT UUOUU	2-6	25%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	9-1 90%	6-3 67%	8-1 89%
GT	6-4 60%	4-4 50%	2-7 22%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIA 0–1 GT GT leads · 1 game since 2023 · GT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Georgia Tech 23 @ Miami 20	MIA -20	GT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+9.9 →+20.6▲ 10.7#7

GT+2.9 →+6.6▲ 3.7#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

MIA

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ MIA better

#48

#35

Defense

◀ MIA better

#59

+0.7 #27

Turnovers

◀ MIA better

0.0 #73

72 plays #16

Pace

◀ MIA faster

68 plays #51

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	GT def	Edge
Points / game	47.4 #1	22.4 #51	MIA
Yards / play	7.71 #2	5.38 #56	MIA
PPA / play	+0.40 #4	+0.10 #69	MIA
Success rate	52% #4	41% #60	MIA

When GT has the ball

Even matchup

	GT off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	27.7 #73	22.6 #53	Even
Yards / play	6.19 #47	5.09 #38	Even
PPA / play	+0.21 #36	+0.04 #37	Even
Success rate	46% #34	36% #13	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MIA scoring against the GT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	10.9 #4	9.9 #39	20.8 #12	12.1 #3	14.6 #1	26.7 #1
GT allowed	3.2 #21	8.3 #81	11.6 #61	5.6 #64	5.3 #45	10.9 #48

GT scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GT scored	7.7 #33	7.6 #87	15.2 #54	4.2 #107	8.2 #40	12.4 #83
MIA allowed	4.8 #59	8.7 #90	13.4 #82	4.6 #39	4.6 #23	9.1 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.