Florida State @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2024)

Sat, Nov 9, 2024, 7:30 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff50°F12 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

Florida State

1-8 · Power #85

final

Final

Notre Dame

7-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -25.5

✓ ND W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

FSU 7–33 ND

✓ ND (97%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -24.5

CloseND -25.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -24.5

1 → ND

CloseND -25.5

1 pt toward Notre Dame

Total

Open42.5

▲ 2

Close44.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -24.5 · closed ND -25.5 · moved 1 toward NDmodel ND -27

model ND -27

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 24.5–26.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 43% (42 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 53% (91 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -24.5

CloseND -25.5

Total42.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 25.5-point home favorite against FSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 52–3; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 25.1 against an average line of 25.9; 44.3 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ND vs STAN 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-22.5	49–7	W	O45.5
Close	ND vs WAKE 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-23.5	45–7	W	O47.5
Close	PSU vs UCLA 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & total	-29.5	27–11	L	U47.5
Close	ND vs M-OH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & spread	-27.5	28–3	L	U44
Close	MICH vs NU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-23.5	33–7	W	U51
Close	WISC vs NU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-25.5	35–7	W	O41.5
Close	PSU vs ILL 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-24.5	18–20	L	U45.5
Close	OSU vs MINN 2023 · Week 12 · close	-27.5	37–3	W	U51.5
Close	UTAH vs STAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar spread	-24	42–7	W	U54
Loose	PSU vs IU 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & total	-31	33–24	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
FSU LWLLL	2-7	22%	0-3	1-4
ND LWWWW	6-2	75%	2-2	5-2

Venue/role: FSU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
FSU OUUUU	1-8	11%	1-8
ND UOOUO	4-4	50%	7-1

Went over in Q4. Of 237 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–48.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
FSU	1-9 10%	2-8 20%	2-8 20%
ND	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

FSU+14.6 →−2.5▼ 17.1#76

ND+18.9 →+19.3▲ 0.4#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

FSU

Longer bar = better

#134

Offense

ND better ▶

#27

#93

Defense

ND better ▶

−1.3 #135

Turnovers

ND better ▶

+1.3 #4

59 plays #130

Pace

ND faster ▶

64 plays #96

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: ND defense

	FSU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	14.4 #136	12.1 #4	ND
Yards / play	4.45 #134	4.48 #6	ND
PPA / play	−0.04 #129	−0.16 #1	ND
Success rate	34% #135	37% #18	ND

When ND has the ball

Advantage: ND offense

	ND off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	36.6 #16	27.3 #88	ND
Yards / play	6.35 #36	5.70 #79	ND
PPA / play	+0.24 #21	+0.25 #125	ND
Success rate	46% #33	42% #78	ND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

FSU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	3.1 #125	3.8 #131	6.9 #132	3.9 #115	3.7 #133	7.6 #130
ND allowed	4.3 #48	2.9 #3	7.1 #6	1.8 #4	3.3 #6	5.0 #3

ND scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.3 #26	11.6 #15	19.9 #17	9.0 #19	7.8 #47	16.8 #22
FSU allowed	5.3 #64	9.3 #102	14.7 #93	6.8 #95	5.9 #59	12.7 #74

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.