North Carolina @ Florida State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Florida State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff84°F7 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

North Carolina

4-4 · Power #64

▲ winner

Final

Florida State

1-7 · Power #85

final

Closing spread

UNC -2.5

✓ UNC W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

UNC 27–25 FSU

✓ UNC (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -2

CloseUNC -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNC -2

0.5 → UNC

CloseUNC -2.5

0.5 pts toward North Carolina

Total

Open50.5

no move

Close50.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNC -2 · closed UNC -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward UNCmodel UNC -1.5

model UNC -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 47% (121 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNC -2

CloseUNC -2.5

Total50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNC as a 2.5-point road favorite at FSU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNC won 35–11; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.9 against an average line of 2.6; 53.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	MIA @ UVA 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–12	L	U48.5
Very close	WSU @ STAN 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	52–14	W	O48.5
Very close	GASO @ MRSH 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	33–38	L	O56.5
Very close	UTSA @ ARMY 2022 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	41–38	W	O54
Very close	TTU @ BYU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	14–27	L	U50
Very close	WIS @ MINN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.25	28–14	W	U44
Very close	VT @ UVA 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-1.75	55–17	W	O53
Very close	NEB @ RUTG 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–13	L	U50.5
Very close	ARK @ MIZ 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	27–29	L	O55.5
Close	WAKE @ STAN 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	27–24	P	U53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNC LLLLW	2-6	25%	2-1	1-4
FSU WLWLL	2-6	25%	2-2	1-3

Venue/role: UNC away, as favorite; FSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNC OUUOU	3-5	38%	4-4
FSU UOUUU	1-7	13%	1-7

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNC	4-6 40%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
FSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNC+7.2 →+3.4▼ 3.8#54

FSU+14.6 →−0.3▼ 14.9#70

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

UNC

Longer bar = better

FSU

#54

Offense

◀ UNC better

#132

#82

Defense

Even

#86

−0.3 #91

Turnovers

◀ UNC better

−1.3 #131

73 plays #13

Pace

◀ UNC faster

61 plays #121

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNC has the ball

Advantage: UNC offense

	UNC off	FSU def	Edge
Points / game	33.9 #29	26.4 #83	UNC
Yards / play	6.08 #51	5.54 #71	Even
PPA / play	+0.15 #59	+0.22 #118	UNC
Success rate	43% #75	41% #72	Even

When FSU has the ball

Advantage: UNC defense

	FSU off	UNC def	Edge
Points / game	14.9 #135	28.4 #97	UNC
Yards / play	4.46 #132	5.75 #87	UNC
PPA / play	−0.05 #126	+0.12 #82	UNC
Success rate	34% #133	40% #63	UNC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNC scoring against the FSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNC scored	7.4 #38	9.9 #39	17.3 #39	8.4 #27	8.3 #34	16.6 #28
FSU allowed	6.0 #85	8.8 #89	14.8 #91	5.9 #71	5.8 #55	11.6 #61

FSU scoring against the UNC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FSU scored	3.1 #121	4.3 #129	7.4 #133	3.4 #115	4.1 #129	7.5 #129
UNC allowed	6.0 #85	9.8 #112	15.8 #101	4.4 #37	8.3 #104	12.6 #79

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.