Stanford @ NC State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at NC State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Stanford

2-6 · Power #96

final

Final

NC State

4-4 · Power #67

▲ winner

Closing spread

NCSU -9.5

✓ NCSU W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 87 pts

Model before kickoff

STAN 19–29 NCSU

✓ NCSU (76%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -10

CloseNCSU -9.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNCSU -10

0.5 → STAN

CloseNCSU -9.5

0.5 pts toward Stanford

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NCSU -10 · closed NCSU -9.5 · moved 0.5 toward STANmodel NCSU -11

model NCSU -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 42% (79 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNCSU -10

CloseNCSU -9.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NCSU as a 9.5-point home favorite against STAN, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: NCSU won 59–28; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 87 points went over 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 74%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.4 against an average line of 9.4; 45 points a game (usually 54.7). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs NAVY 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-11	17–20	L	U46
Very close	CMU vs WMU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-10	10–12	L	U48.75
Close	NIU vs BALL 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-9.5	17–20	L	U43
Close	MINN vs MSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	27–12	W	U41
Close	CAL vs STAN 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-5	27–20	W	O46
Close	WIS vs PUR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & season form	-12	52–6	W	O44.5
Close	LIB vs VT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	22–23	L	U46.25
Close	CAL vs COLO 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-8.25	26–3	W	U44
Close	MSU vs IU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & season form	-12	31–39	L	O47.25
Close	UTEP vs RICE 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-9	38–28	W	O47

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STAN LLLLL	3-5	38%	1-2	2-5
NCSU LLLLW	1-7	13%	0-5	0-4

Venue/role: STAN away, as underdog; NCSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
STAN UUOUU	2-6	25%	2-6
NCSU OUOUO	5-3	63%	4-4

Went over in Q3. Of 260 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–50.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STAN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	3-7 30%
NCSU	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

STAN 0–1 NCSU NCSU leads · 1 game since 2024 · NCSU has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

STAN−5.0 →−7.5▼ 2.5#98

NCSU+5.5 →−1.4▼ 6.9#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

STAN

Longer bar = better

NCSU

#123

Offense

NCSU better ▶

#72

#111

Defense

NCSU better ▶

#92

−0.5 #103

Turnovers

Even

−0.4 #96

68 plays #63

Pace

◀ STAN faster

62 plays #116

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: NCSU defense

	STAN off	NCSU def	Edge
Points / game	19.5 #123	31.1 #111	Even
Yards / play	4.53 #131	5.80 #92	NCSU
PPA / play	−0.10 #135	+0.10 #72	NCSU
Success rate	40% #102	43% #93	Even

When NCSU has the ball

Advantage: NCSU offense

	NCSU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #88	31.5 #114	NCSU
Yards / play	5.70 #77	6.27 #118	NCSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #56	+0.19 #106	NCSU
Success rate	44% #65	44% #105	NCSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

STAN scoring against the NCSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	3.5 #113	6.8 #101	10.3 #111	4.3 #102	5.0 #111	9.3 #117
NCSU allowed	9.5 #131	9.3 #99	18.8 #124	7.6 #112	4.8 #32	12.4 #75

NCSU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NCSU scored	2.9 #122	7.1 #92	10.0 #112	5.6 #77	10.4 #9	16.0 #33
STAN allowed	8.3 #122	8.5 #87	16.8 #112	6.9 #101	7.9 #99	14.8 #108

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.