Louisville @ Stanford: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Stanford · Conference game

Weather at kickoff57°F6 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Louisville

6-3 · Power #14

final

Final

Stanford

2-7 · Power #96

▲ winner

Closing spread

LOU -20.5

✓ STAN W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 73 pts

Model before kickoff

LOU 37–17 STAN

✗ LOU (93%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -20.5

CloseLOU -20.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLOU -20.5

no move

CloseLOU -20.5

No change since the open

Total

Open58.5

▼ 1

Close57.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LOU -20.5 · unchangedmodel LOU -20

model LOU -20

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenLOU -20.5

CloseLOU -20.5

Total58.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LOU as a 20.5-point road favorite at STAN, the favorite won 9, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: STAN won 38–35 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 73 points went over 57.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 14.7 against an average line of 20.8; 54.5 points a game (usually 55.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BYU @ GASO 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-20	34–17	L	U57.25
Close	UTAH @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-24	38–29	L	O54.5
Close	UK @ VAN 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-21.5	34–17	L	U52.5
Close	UCLA @ ARIZ 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & total	-16	34–16	W	U60.75
Close	TEX @ HOU 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-23.5	31–24	L	U60.5
Close	FLA @ SC 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-20.5	17–40	L	O52
Close	UCLA @ STAN 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-17	42–7	W	U52
Close	LIB @ UNT 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-21	35–26	L	P61
Close	MIA @ DUKE 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-20.5	47–10	W	U67
Close	ORE @ UCLA 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-23.5	34–13	L	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LOU LLLLW	4-5	44%	1-3	3-3
STAN LLLLL	3-6	33%	2-3	2-6

Venue/role: LOU away, as favorite; STAN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LOU OUOOU	6-3	67%	6-3
STAN UOUUO	3-6	33%	2-7

Went over in Q4. Of 289 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LOU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%
STAN	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LOU+9.6 →+13.6▲ 4.0#16

STAN−5.0 →−8.5▼ 3.5#104

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

LOU

Longer bar = better

STAN

#16

Offense

◀ LOU better

#120

#67

Defense

◀ LOU better

#122

−0.2 #87

Turnovers

◀ LOU better

−0.6 #105

65 plays #86

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LOU has the ball

Advantage: LOU offense

	LOU off	STAN def	Edge
Points / game	36.2 #18	34.6 #123	LOU
Yards / play	6.89 #8	6.51 #123	LOU
PPA / play	+0.26 #14	+0.25 #124	LOU
Success rate	47% #24	46% #117	LOU

When STAN has the ball

Advantage: LOU defense

	STAN off	LOU def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #120	24.2 #68	LOU
Yards / play	4.78 #130	5.29 #51	LOU
PPA / play	−0.06 #130	+0.14 #84	LOU
Success rate	41% #100	41% #64	LOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LOU scoring against the STAN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LOU scored	6.4 #55	11.1 #20	17.6 #32	10.2 #9	8.4 #31	18.7 #8
STAN allowed	8.9 #127	9.4 #103	18.3 #120	8.4 #119	7.8 #95	16.2 #118

STAN scoring against the LOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
STAN scored	3.9 #108	6.8 #103	10.7 #113	4.6 #100	5.2 #116	9.8 #116
LOU allowed	8.1 #119	6.8 #51	14.9 #95	3.7 #21	5.7 #52	9.3 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.