Clemson @ Pittsburgh: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Pittsburgh · Conference game

Weather at kickoff50°F8 mphgusts 21DryWeather watch ›

Clemson

7-2 · Power #17

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh

7-2 · Power #57

final

Closing spread

CLEM -12.5

✓ PITT W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

CLEM 34–23 PITT

✓ CLEM (80%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -9.5

CloseCLEM -12.5

Total55.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCLEM -9.5

3 → CLEM

CloseCLEM -12.5

3 pts toward Clemson

Total

Open55.5

▼ 5

Close50.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CLEM -9.5 · closed CLEM -12.5 · moved 3 toward CLEMmodel CLEM -8.5

model CLEM -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 10.5–14.5 since 2023: won 80%, covered 51% (69 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (95 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCLEM -9.5

CloseCLEM -12.5

Total55.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CLEM as a 12.5-point road favorite at PITT, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: CLEM won 24–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 79%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 21.3 against an average line of 11.2; 57.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIZ @ ARK 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O53.5
Close	ISU @ TTU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-12.5	38–41	L	O55.5
Close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	CLEM @ SC 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	16–7	W	U48.25
Close	MINN @ NEB 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	20–13	L	U44.5
Close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Close	AFA @ UNLV 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-10	42–7	W	U50
Close	ALA @ UK 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & situation	-10.5	49–21	W	O46.25
Close	MISS @ ARK 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & situation	-8	63–31	W	O54
Close	UTAH @ STAN 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-10.25	52–7	W	O51.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLEM LWLLW	5-4	56%	2-1	5-3
PITT WLWLL	5-4	56%	4-2	1-1

Venue/role: CLEM away, as favorite; PITT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLEM UUOUU	3-6	33%	7-2
PITT UUUOU	4-5	44%	7-2

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLEM	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
PITT	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLEM+12.9 →+15.6▲ 2.7#12

PITT−0.9 →+5.6▲ 6.5#44

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CLEM

Longer bar = better

PITT

#19

Offense

◀ CLEM better

#35

#46

Defense

Even

#43

+1.2 #6

Turnovers

◀ CLEM better

+0.6 #31

74 plays #8

Pace

◀ CLEM faster

67 plays #69

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLEM has the ball

Advantage: CLEM offense

	CLEM off	PITT def	Edge
Points / game	37.7 #14	25.1 #73	CLEM
Yards / play	6.38 #31	4.85 #22	Even
PPA / play	+0.30 #12	+0.04 #40	CLEM
Success rate	48% #20	38% #36	Even

When PITT has the ball

Even matchup

	PITT off	CLEM def	Edge
Points / game	36.7 #16	23.1 #59	PITT
Yards / play	6.37 #32	5.32 #54	PITT
PPA / play	+0.21 #34	+0.05 #43	Even
Success rate	44% #59	38% #27	CLEM

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

CLEM scoring against the PITT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLEM scored	11.1 #3	10.3 #31	21.4 #9	9.6 #14	6.7 #78	16.2 #31
PITT allowed	5.3 #67	8.2 #81	13.6 #84	7.1 #102	4.4 #20	11.6 #58

PITT scoring against the CLEM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PITT scored	8.7 #22	10.7 #25	19.3 #22	5.9 #74	11.4 #4	17.3 #18
CLEM allowed	1.4 #3	8.3 #84	9.8 #29	4.1 #31	9.2 #119	13.3 #83

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.