Akron @ Northern Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Wed, Nov 13, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Northern Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff49°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Akron

2-7 · Power #124

final

Final

Northern Illinois

5-4 · Power #74

▲ winner

Closing spread

NIU -14.5

✓ AKR W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 45 pts

Model before kickoff

AKR 13–29 NIU

✓ NIU (87%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -16.5

CloseNIU -14.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNIU -16.5

2 → AKR

CloseNIU -14.5

2 pts toward Akron

Total

Open47.5

▼ 4

Close43.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NIU -16.5 · closed NIU -14.5 · moved 2 toward AKRmodel NIU -19.5

model NIU -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 54% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 47% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNIU -16.5

CloseNIU -14.5

Total47.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NIU as a 14.5-point home favorite against AKR, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NIU won 29–16; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 45 points went over 43.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Below normal · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 14.9; 47.3 points a game (usually 53.9). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NIU vs MASS 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-14	34–20	P	O41
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-14.5	35–42	L	O46.5
Close	M-OH vs AKR 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-17	19–0	W	U37.5
Close	LT vs USM 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-15.5	19–35	L	O47.5
Close	UK vs VAN 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & total	-17	21–24	L	U45.5
Close	TOL vs BUFF 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-14.5	31–13	W	U47.25
Close	UCLA vs ASU 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & season form	-14	7–17	L	U45.5
Close	USA vs CMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-16	30–34	L	O47.5
Close	WYO vs HAW 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & spread	-13.5	42–9	W	O45
Close	FRES vs HAW 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & total	-12.5	20–21	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR LWLWL	3-6	33%	1-4	3-5
NIU WWLLW	6-3	67%	2-2	3-3

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; NIU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR UUOUO	6-3	67%	2-7
NIU OUUOO	5-4	56%	5-4

Went over in Q4. Of 208 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–47.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
NIU	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

AKR 0–1 NIU NIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · NIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	Northern Illinois 55 @ Akron 14	NIU -2.5	NIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

AKR−13.9 →−17.0▼ 3.1#125

NIU−7.8 →−2.2▲ 5.6#74

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

AKR

Longer bar = better

NIU

#119

Offense

NIU better ▶

#75

#114

Defense

NIU better ▶

#24

−1.1 #130

Turnovers

NIU better ▶

−0.6 #105

62 plays #120

Pace

NIU faster ▶

72 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	AKR off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	18.9 #128	18.8 #19	NIU
Yards / play	5.19 #115	4.76 #14	NIU
PPA / play	−0.04 #128	+0.01 #25	NIU
Success rate	40% #104	39% #36	NIU

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: NIU offense

	NIU off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #91	36.0 #127	NIU
Yards / play	5.53 #89	6.04 #105	Even
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.19 #108	NIU
Success rate	45% #43	46% #114	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

AKR scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.3 #80	6.1 #117	11.4 #104	1.9 #130	5.6 #104	7.4 #130
NIU allowed	5.0 #59	5.0 #19	10.0 #31	4.0 #29	4.4 #18	8.4 #13

NIU scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	5.6 #77	8.8 #57	14.3 #63	4.4 #106	6.7 #79	11.1 #104
AKR allowed	7.4 #112	9.9 #111	17.3 #113	9.1 #126	9.6 #122	18.7 #130

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.