Kent State @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Wed, Nov 13, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff54°F11 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Kent State

0-9 · Power #134

final

Final

Miami (OH)

5-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -30.5

✓ KENT W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

KENT 9–39 M-OH

✓ M-OH (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -30.5

CloseM-OH -30.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -30.5

no move

CloseM-OH -30.5

No change since the open

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -30.5 · unchangedmodel M-OH -31

model M-OH -31

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 28.5–32.5 since 2023: won 98%, covered 58% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -30.5

CloseM-OH -30.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 30.5-point home favorite against KENT, the favorite won 10, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 34–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 45.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 29.8 against an average line of 29.8; 52.2 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	UCF vs CONN 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-30	49–17	W	O55.75
Close	TOL vs AKR 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & spread	-28.5	49–14	W	O57.5
Loose	BSU vs UNM 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-27.5	37–0	W	U48
Loose	OKST vs KU 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-29	55–3	W	O54.5
Loose	MIZ vs NMSU 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar total & rest	-29	45–14	W	O46.5
Loose	UTSA vs USM 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & spread	-32.5	27–17	L	U54.5
Loose	OHIO vs KENT 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-24.5	42–17	W	O45.5
Loose	TA&M vs MASS 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-32	20–3	L	U46
Loose	ARMY vs MASS 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-37	33–17	L	U56
Loose	FRES vs KENT 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-27.5	53–10	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KENT LWWLL	2-6	25%	1-3	2-5
M-OH LWWWL	4-5	44%	2-2	3-2

Venue/role: KENT away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KENT OOUOU	5-3	63%	0-9
M-OH OOOOU	4-5	44%	5-4

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 41.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KENT	0-10 0%	3-6 33%	6-3 67%
M-OH	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

KENT 0–1 M-OH M-OH leads · 1 game since 2023 · M-OH has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 30 2023	Miami (OH) 23 @ Kent State 3	M-OH -14	M-OH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KENT−20.0 →−28.7▼ 8.7#134

M-OH−4.7 →−3.0▲ 1.7#79

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

KENT

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#136

Offense

M-OH better ▶

#85

#135

Defense

M-OH better ▶

#46

−1.1 #129

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

+0.4 #37

58 plays #134

Pace

Even

60 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KENT has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	KENT off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	15.1 #136	20.0 #25	M-OH
Yards / play	4.08 #136	5.01 #32	M-OH
PPA / play	−0.12 #136	+0.06 #48	M-OH
Success rate	31% #136	42% #80	M-OH

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: M-OH offense

	M-OH off	KENT def	Edge
Points / game	23.2 #105	46.0 #137	M-OH
Yards / play	5.92 #61	7.05 #135	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.11 #80	+0.32 #134	M-OH
Success rate	41% #94	51% #134	M-OH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

KENT scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KENT scored	1.9 #132	5.0 #125	6.9 #132	2.7 #128	5.6 #104	8.2 #125
M-OH allowed	5.3 #65	4.0 #8	9.3 #24	5.0 #51	5.7 #52	10.7 #40

M-OH scoring against the KENT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	3.7 #116	7.3 #89	11.0 #107	5.0 #90	6.9 #71	11.9 #90
KENT allowed	13.2 #134	15.7 #133	28.9 #134	8.8 #122	8.3 #107	17.1 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.