Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH): Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Tue, Nov 19, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Miami (OH) · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F4 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Northern Illinois

6-4 · Power #74

final

Final

Miami (OH)

6-4 · Power #73

▲ winner

Closing spread

M-OH -2.5

✓ M-OH W

Total

42.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

NIU 19–21 M-OH

✓ M-OH (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenM-OH -3.5

1 → NIU

CloseM-OH -2.5

1 pt toward Northern Illinois

Total

Open43.5

▼ 1

Close42.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened M-OH -3.5 · closed M-OH -2.5 · moved 1 toward NIUmodel M-OH -2.5 matches the line

model M-OH -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (188 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 48% (42 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenM-OH -3.5

CloseM-OH -2.5

Total43.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like M-OH as a 2.5-point home favorite against NIU, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: M-OH won 20–9; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 42.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 5.3 against an average line of 2.9; 47.5 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BGSU vs NIU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	7–17	L	U46.5
Very close	TOL vs BGSU 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2	26–41	L	O48
Very close	TROY vs USA 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	31–24	W	O47.5
Very close	M-OH vs OHIO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–20	W	O43.5
Very close	VT vs SYR 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	36–41	L	O45.5
Very close	VT vs NCSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	28–35	L	O41
Very close	SJSU vs WYO 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	27–21	W	O40.5
Very close	NIU vs TOL 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	6–13	L	U42.5
Very close	USA vs TROY 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	6–10	L	U47
Very close	USM vs GAST 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2	14–42	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU WLLWL	6-4	60%	4-1	3-0
M-OH WWWLL	4-6	40%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: NIU away, as underdog; M-OH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUOOO	6-4	60%	6-4
M-OH OOOUU	4-6	40%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 55% of games with totals 38.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
M-OH	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NIU−7.8 →−2.2▲ 5.6#73

M-OH−4.7 →−2.9▲ 1.8#78

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

NIU

Longer bar = better

M-OH

#77

Offense

Even

#80

#14

Defense

◀ NIU better

#41

−0.4 #98

Turnovers

M-OH better ▶

+0.4 #37

71 plays #24

Pace

◀ NIU faster

60 plays #129

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NIU has the ball

Advantage: M-OH defense

	NIU off	M-OH def	Edge
Points / game	25.8 #91	18.7 #18	M-OH
Yards / play	5.70 #74	4.82 #19	M-OH
PPA / play	+0.12 #78	+0.06 #46	M-OH
Success rate	44% #66	42% #81	Even

When M-OH has the ball

Advantage: NIU defense

	M-OH off	NIU def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #98	18.5 #16	NIU
Yards / play	6.11 #47	4.59 #8	NIU
PPA / play	+0.11 #82	−0.01 #15	NIU
Success rate	41% #93	37% #17	NIU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NIU scoring against the M-OH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NIU scored	6.7 #45	8.5 #59	15.2 #53	4.0 #112	6.6 #80	10.6 #108
M-OH allowed	5.5 #78	3.6 #5	9.1 #22	4.5 #40	5.1 #35	9.6 #24

M-OH scoring against the NIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
M-OH scored	4.3 #101	7.3 #87	11.6 #103	5.9 #70	6.5 #82	12.4 #84
NIU allowed	5.1 #64	5.5 #27	10.6 #38	3.6 #20	4.0 #12	7.6 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.