UNLV @ San José State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2024)

Fri, Nov 22, 2024, 10:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at San José State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff61°F12 mphgusts 27Wet0.1 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UNLV

8-2 · Power #42

▲ winner

Final

San José State

6-4 · Power #86

final

Closing spread

UNLV -7.5

✓ UNLV W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

UNLV 32–24 SJSU

✓ UNLV (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -8

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNLV -8

0.5 → SJSU

CloseUNLV -7.5

0.5 pts toward San José State

Total

Open62.5

▼ 3

Close59.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNLV -8 · closed UNLV -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward SJSUmodel UNLV -8.5

model UNLV -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (89 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNLV -8

CloseUNLV -7.5

Total62.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNLV as a 7.5-point road favorite at SJSU, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UNLV won 27–16; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4 against an average line of 7.3; 55.2 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TXST @ ODU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	14–24	L	U60
Very close	USA @ TXST 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	44–52	L	O56.75
Very close	WASH @ CAL 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–21	L	U54.5
Very close	ORST @ ASU 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–7	W	U53.5
Very close	JMU @ GAST 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6	42–14	W	O53
Very close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Very close	WKU @ FAU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	32–31	L	O62.25
Very close	JMU @ GASO 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & spread	-9.5	14–28	L	U58.5
Very close	TOL @ BUFF 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	27–34	L	O56
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	27–13	W	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNLV LWLLW	5-4	56%	2-2	4-3
SJSU LLLWL	4-5	44%	2-3	2-3

Venue/role: UNLV away, as favorite; SJSU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OUUOO	6-3	67%	8-2
SJSU OUUUO	4-5	44%	6-4

Stayed under: it needed 24 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLV	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
SJSU	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNLV 0–1 SJSU SJSU leads · 1 game since 2023 · SJSU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 25 2023	San José State 37 @ UNLV 31	UNLV -1	SJSU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNLV−2.0 →+5.5▲ 7.5#43

SJSU−2.2 →−4.5▼ 2.3#86

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

UNLV

Longer bar = better

SJSU

#26

Offense

◀ UNLV better

#47

#38

Defense

◀ UNLV better

#58

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

◀ UNLV better

−0.1 #73

66 plays #81

Pace

Even

66 plays #78

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNLV has the ball

Advantage: UNLV offense

	UNLV off	SJSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.9 #7	25.9 #77	UNLV
Yards / play	6.58 #20	5.23 #44	UNLV
PPA / play	+0.22 #26	+0.03 #33	Even
Success rate	44% #51	42% #76	UNLV

When SJSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SJSU off	UNLV def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #64	23.4 #59	Even
Yards / play	6.52 #22	5.20 #43	SJSU
PPA / play	+0.16 #60	+0.03 #30	UNLV
Success rate	45% #43	37% #18	UNLV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNLV scoring against the SJSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNLV scored	9.8 #10	12.2 #11	22.0 #6	8.7 #21	8.9 #20	17.6 #12
SJSU allowed	4.8 #54	8.2 #86	13.0 #74	5.9 #75	6.2 #61	12.1 #65

SJSU scoring against the UNLV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SJSU scored	6.6 #48	7.6 #80	14.2 #64	5.2 #85	8.0 #44	13.2 #68
UNLV allowed	4.8 #54	5.3 #20	10.1 #33	6.2 #86	6.5 #66	12.7 #73

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.