James Madison @ Georgia Southern: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 4:00 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Georgia Southern · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 20DryWeather watch ›

James Madison

5-1 · Power #59

final

Final

Georgia Southern

4-2 · Power #90

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -8.5

✓ GASO W

Total

57.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

JMU 33–23 GASO

✗ JMU (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -10.5

CloseJMU -8.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -10.5

2 → GASO

CloseJMU -8.5

2 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open60.5

▼ 3

Close57.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -10.5 · closed JMU -8.5 · moved 2 toward GASOmodel JMU -12.5

model JMU -12.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 77%, covered 54% (47 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 48% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -10.5

CloseJMU -8.5

Total60.5 → 57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as an 8.5-point road favorite at GASO, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GASO won 28–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 57.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 11.1 against an average line of 8.6; 53.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA @ ARST 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-9	31–3	W	U52
Very close	CIN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	31–21	P	U59
Very close	TULN @ TLSA 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & spread	-6.5	27–13	W	U56
Very close	TOL @ CMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10	32–17	W	U54.5
Very close	UTSA @ UNT 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & rest	-8.5	23–45	L	O59.5
Very close	OKST @ TTU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-10	23–0	W	U55
Close	FRES @ USU 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation	-5.5	37–32	L	O56
Close	JMU @ ARST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar total & situation	-11.5	42–20	W	O55
Close	LOU @ UVA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	24–20	L	U54
Close	ORST @ CAL 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	52–40	W	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JMU LWWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-2
GASO WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-1

Venue/role: JMU away, as favorite; GASO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JMU UOOUU	2-3	40%	5-1
GASO UOUOU	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 52% of games with totals 53.5–61.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JMU	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
GASO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JMU 1–0 GASO JMU leads · 1 game since 2023 · JMU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 14 2023	Georgia Southern 13 @ James Madison 41	JMU -5.5	JMU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JMU+2.2 →+7.1▲ 4.9#34

GASO−6.0 →−6.7▼ 0.7#96

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

JMU

Longer bar = better

GASO

#43

Offense

◀ JMU better

#82

Defense

◀ JMU better

#116

+2.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ JMU better

+0.5 #42

67 plays #62

Pace

GASO faster ▶

72 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	39.0 #19	30.5 #103	JMU
Yards / play	6.52 #34	6.90 #132	JMU
PPA / play	+0.16 #62	+0.20 #113	JMU
Success rate	45% #56	45% #115	JMU

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	GASO off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	30.3 #57	16.3 #15	JMU
Yards / play	5.16 #110	4.71 #18	JMU
PPA / play	+0.15 #72	−0.16 #3	JMU
Success rate	42% #87	31% #1	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

JMU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	11.2 #7	11.0 #28	22.2 #12	8.5 #24	8.3 #40	16.8 #28
GASO allowed	9.7 #130	6.3 #49	16.0 #104	8.8 #124	5.7 #53	14.5 #106

GASO scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	5.2 #85	9.5 #47	14.7 #63	6.8 #63	8.8 #35	15.7 #38
JMU allowed	4.7 #60	5.2 #35	9.8 #39	3.3 #20	3.2 #10	6.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.