Georgia Southern @ Old Dominion: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Thu, Oct 24, 2024, 7:00 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Old Dominion · Conference game

Weather at kickoff62°F7 mphgusts 12DryWeather watch ›

Georgia Southern

5-2 · Power #90

final

Final

Old Dominion

3-4 · Power #78

▲ winner

Closing spread

GASO -0.5

✓ ODU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 66 pts

Model before kickoff

GASO 28–28 ODU

✗ GASO (50%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -2

CloseGASO -0.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenODU -2

2.5 → GASO

CloseGASO -0.5

2.5 pts toward Georgia Southern

Total

Open54.5

▼ 3

Close51.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ODU -2 · closed GASO -0.5 · moved 2.5 toward GASOmodel ODU -1.5

model ODU -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 54%, covered 50% (70 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (71 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenODU -2

CloseGASO -0.5

Total54.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GASO as a 0.5-point road favorite at ODU, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: ODU won 47–19 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 66 points went over 51.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6.3 against an average line of 2.1; 50.9 points a game (usually 52.8). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Very close	LT @ UTEP 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	24–10	W	U50.5
Very close	JXST @ NMSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-0.25	17–20	L	U48.5
Very close	WMU @ BUFF 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	48–41	W	O49.5
Very close	FRES @ NEV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	24–21	P	U50
Very close	BGSU @ WMU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	34–10	W	U51.5
Close	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75
Close	FAU @ MTSU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	21–49	L	O51
Close	NIU @ WMU 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar total & situation	-0.5	24–21	W	U49
Close	CMU @ BALL 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2.5	37–17	W	U57

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WLWLW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-1
ODU LWLWW	4-3	57%	1-2	4-2

Venue/role: GASO away, as favorite; ODU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO OUOUU	3-4	43%	5-2
ODU OOOUU	3-4	43%	3-4

Went over in Q3. Of 317 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ODU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GASO 0–1 ODU ODU leads · 1 game since 2023 · ODU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	Old Dominion 20 @ Georgia Southern 17	GASO -5.5	ODU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GASO−6.0 →−4.2▲ 1.8#87

ODU−8.4 →−5.1▲ 3.3#91

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

GASO

Longer bar = better

ODU

#82

Offense

◀ GASO better

#107

Defense

ODU better ▶

#52

−0.1 #84

Turnovers

Even

−0.1 #86

72 plays #22

Pace

◀ GASO faster

68 plays #59

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GASO has the ball

Advantage: ODU defense

	GASO off	ODU def	Edge
Points / game	30.0 #59	25.7 #80	GASO
Yards / play	5.21 #106	5.34 #59	ODU
PPA / play	+0.12 #74	+0.05 #47	ODU
Success rate	42% #87	37% #23	ODU

When ODU has the ball

Even matchup

	ODU off	GASO def	Edge
Points / game	23.1 #102	28.1 #98	Even
Yards / play	4.96 #120	6.38 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.08 #90	+0.15 #99	Even
Success rate	37% #115	45% #112	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

GASO scoring against the ODU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GASO scored	5.4 #82	10.1 #38	15.6 #56	6.9 #57	7.6 #53	14.4 #54
ODU allowed	6.3 #89	4.4 #20	10.7 #49	6.9 #97	8.1 #103	15.0 #111

ODU scoring against the GASO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ODU scored	6.0 #70	5.3 #117	11.3 #97	4.3 #102	7.6 #53	11.9 #91
GASO allowed	8.3 #122	5.4 #36	13.7 #85	8.6 #124	5.9 #56	14.4 #105

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.