Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Wed, Oct 23, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Jacksonville State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff68°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Middle Tennessee

2-5 · Power #129

final

Final

Jacksonville State

3-3 · Power #81

▲ winner

Closing spread

JXST -20.5

✓ JXST W

Total

64.5

▼ Under · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

MTSU 20–40 JXST

✓ JXST (92%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -21.5

CloseJXST -20.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJXST -21.5

1 → MTSU

CloseJXST -20.5

1 pt toward Middle Tennessee

Total

Open63.5

▲ 1

Close64.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JXST -21.5 · closed JXST -20.5 · moved 1 toward MTSUmodel JXST -17

model JXST -17

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 19.5–21.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 46% (59 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (68 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJXST -21.5

CloseJXST -20.5

Total63.5 → 64.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JXST as a 20.5-point home favorite against MTSU, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: JXST won 42–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 62 points stayed under 64.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 90%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 22 against an average line of 20; 51.4 points a game (usually 55.8). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MRSH vs FIU 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & rest	-21.5	38–0	W	U64
Close	WKU vs UTEP 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & spread	-19	44–17	W	O55.5
Close	JXST vs NMSU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-21	54–13	W	O58.5
Close	UNT vs FIU 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-21.5	52–14	W	O63.25
Close	GASO vs ULM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	38–28	L	O60.5
Close	UL vs TXST 2021 · Week 9 · close · similar situation	-21	45–0	W	U58
Close	TXST vs ULM 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-18.5	21–20	L	U64.5
Close	UCF vs USF 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-17	17–13	L	U62
Close	FRES vs UNM 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & situation	-22.5	17–25	L	U58.5
Close	SMU vs USF 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar situation & total	-21.25	41–17	W	U68.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MTSU LLWLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-4
JXST LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: MTSU away, as underdog; JXST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MTSU OOUOU	3-3	50%	2-5
JXST OOUOO	5-1	83%	3-3

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 41% of games with totals 60.5–68.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MTSU	4-6 40%	2-7 22%	4-5 44%
JXST	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MTSU 0–4 JXST JXST leads · 4 games since 2023 · JXST has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2023	Jacksonville State 45 @ Middle Tennessee 30	MTSU -2.5	JXST W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MTSU−7.5 →−18.4▼ 10.9#129

JXST−4.5 →−5.1▼ 0.6#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

MTSU

Longer bar = better

JXST

#117

Offense

JXST better ▶

#31

#128

Defense

JXST better ▶

#95

−0.9 #118

Turnovers

JXST better ▶

+1.5 #6

64 plays #98

Pace

JXST faster ▶

66 plays #80

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MTSU has the ball

Advantage: JXST defense

	MTSU off	JXST def	Edge
Points / game	16.4 #133	30.8 #108	JXST
Yards / play	5.24 #103	5.78 #90	Even
PPA / play	0.00 #120	+0.07 #59	JXST
Success rate	38% #112	47% #122	Even

When JXST has the ball

Advantage: JXST offense

	JXST off	MTSU def	Edge
Points / game	39.3 #16	35.4 #123	JXST
Yards / play	6.83 #15	6.69 #129	JXST
PPA / play	+0.19 #52	+0.30 #132	JXST
Success rate	46% #42	48% #127	JXST

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MTSU scoring against the JXST defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MTSU scored	5.4 #81	2.4 #134	7.9 #129	6.0 #70	2.6 #134	8.6 #122
JXST allowed	8.5 #125	11.0 #123	19.5 #126	3.3 #21	7.0 #82	10.3 #36

JXST scoring against the MTSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JXST scored	6.3 #62	13.5 #4	19.8 #20	9.7 #16	9.3 #22	19.0 #10
MTSU allowed	11.6 #132	8.7 #88	20.3 #129	9.7 #132	5.4 #48	15.1 #116

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.