Sam Houston @ Florida International: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Tue, Oct 22, 2024, 7:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Florida International · Conference game

Weather at kickoff78°F15 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Sam Houston

5-2 · Power #93

▲ winner

Final

Florida International

2-5 · Power #121

final

Closing spread

SHSU -6.5

✓ FIU W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 17 pts

Model before kickoff

SHSU 26–19 FIU

✓ SHSU (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -6

CloseSHSU -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSHSU -6

0.5 → SHSU

CloseSHSU -6.5

0.5 pts toward Sam Houston

Total

Open45.5

▲ 1

Close46.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SHSU -6 · closed SHSU -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward SHSUmodel SHSU -6

model SHSU -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 57% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSHSU -6

CloseSHSU -6.5

Total45.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SHSU as a 6.5-point road favorite at FIU, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SHSU won 10–7; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 17 points stayed under 46.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 5.6; 53.9 points a game (usually 53.6). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	EMU @ BGSU 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-4	55–24	W	O49.5
Very close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	MRSH @ ODU 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	12–0	W	U46.5
Very close	LIB @ ODU 2022 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	38–24	W	O47.5
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	MTSU @ SHSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	20–23	L	U50

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SHSU –WWWL	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1
FIU LLWWL	4-3	57%	2-1	4-1

Venue/role: SHSU away, as favorite; FIU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SHSU –UOOU	3-3	50%	5-2
FIU OOUUO	4-3	57%	2-5

Stayed under: it needed 40 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 54% of games with totals 42.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SHSU	7-3 70%	7-2 78%	4-5 44%
FIU	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SHSU 0–1 FIU FIU leads · 1 game since 2023 · FIU has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2023	Florida International 33 @ Sam Houston 27	SHSU -5.5	FIU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SHSU−10.8 →−5.2▲ 5.6#93

FIU−14.7 →−13.5▲ 1.2#119

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

SHSU

Longer bar = better

FIU

#72

Offense

◀ SHSU better

#109

#79

Defense

Even

#85

+0.4 #45

Turnovers

◀ SHSU better

−0.6 #103

72 plays #18

Pace

◀ SHSU faster

60 plays #126

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SHSU has the ball

Even matchup

	SHSU off	FIU def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #67	28.7 #98	SHSU
Yards / play	5.55 #90	5.48 #69	FIU
PPA / play	+0.16 #61	+0.11 #79	Even
Success rate	43% #71	43% #92	SHSU

When FIU has the ball

Advantage: SHSU defense

	FIU off	SHSU def	Edge
Points / game	26.1 #84	24.9 #75	Even
Yards / play	5.40 #98	5.34 #57	SHSU
PPA / play	−0.08 #132	+0.14 #89	SHSU
Success rate	37% #120	43% #95	SHSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SHSU scoring against the FIU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SHSU scored	6.4 #58	10.9 #30	17.3 #35	7.3 #48	4.7 #120	12.0 #87
FIU allowed	4.9 #66	10.6 #116	15.4 #101	7.4 #106	4.9 #33	12.3 #73

FIU scoring against the SHSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
FIU scored	6.4 #58	8.0 #80	14.4 #69	5.1 #85	6.6 #79	11.7 #94
SHSU allowed	6.6 #101	6.7 #55	13.3 #82	6.4 #86	5.1 #43	11.6 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.