East Carolina @ Charlotte: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Charlotte · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F7 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

East Carolina

3-2 · Power #92

final

Final

Charlotte

2-3 · Power #119

▲ winner

Closing spread

ECU -8.5

✓ CLT W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 79 pts

Model before kickoff

ECU 26–19 CLT

✗ ECU (71%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -8

CloseECU -8.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenECU -8

0.5 → ECU

CloseECU -8.5

0.5 pts toward East Carolina

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ECU -8 · closed ECU -8.5 · moved 0.5 toward ECUmodel ECU -5.5

model ECU -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 78%, covered 57% (41 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenECU -8

CloseECU -8.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ECU as an 8.5-point road favorite at CLT, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: CLT won 55–24 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 79 points went over 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.2 against an average line of 7.7; 50 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	WYO @ NEV 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11	42–6	W	O41.75
Very close	FRES @ SDSU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	18–33	L	O47.25
Very close	JMU @ ODU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	37–3	W	U48
Very close	WYO @ CSU 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-8.5	14–13	L	U42.5
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.75	31–37	L	O48
Very close	FAU @ ODU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	16–30	L	U48
Very close	NCSU @ UVA 2023 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-8	24–21	L	U47.5
Very close	UL @ ODU 2023 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-6	31–38	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ECU WWLLW	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1
CLT –W–LW	2-1	67%	—	2-1

Venue/role: ECU away, as favorite; CLT home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ECU UUUOU	1-4	20%	3-2
CLT –O–OU	2-1	67%	2-3

Went over in Q3. Of 231 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 33% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ECU	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
CLT	3-7 30%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ECU 0–1 CLT CLT leads · 1 game since 2023 · CLT has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Charlotte 10 @ East Carolina 7	ECU -6	CLT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ECU−7.2 →−6.0▲ 1.2#92

CLT−9.5 →−13.3▼ 3.8#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ECU

Longer bar = better

CLT

#103

Offense

◀ ECU better

#119

#28

Defense

◀ ECU better

#117

−0.8 #110

Turnovers

CLT better ▶

−0.4 #92

72 plays #23

Pace

◀ ECU faster

63 plays #102

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	CLT def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #87	33.2 #118	ECU
Yards / play	5.47 #97	6.74 #130	ECU
PPA / play	−0.03 #120	+0.23 #113	Even
Success rate	39% #109	44% #106	Even

When CLT has the ball

Advantage: ECU defense

	CLT off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	17.8 #124	18.6 #36	ECU
Yards / play	5.07 #111	4.58 #26	ECU
PPA / play	0.00 #117	−0.04 #26	ECU
Success rate	35% #124	35% #24	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ECU scoring against the CLT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	10.6 #15	4.8 #116	15.4 #65	7.8 #48	3.8 #121	11.6 #92
CLT allowed	6.0 #85	11.6 #124	17.6 #111	6.8 #92	8.8 #114	15.6 #113

CLT scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLT scored	0.6 #133	5.4 #108	6.0 #131	4.8 #94	7.0 #59	11.8 #87
ECU allowed	2.6 #24	6.2 #50	8.8 #35	5.6 #72	4.2 #40	9.8 #42

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.