Army @ Tulsa: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sat, Oct 5, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at Tulsa · Conference game

Weather at kickoff80°F8 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Army

4-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Final

Tulsa

2-3 · Power #131

final

Closing spread

ARMY -13.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

50.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

ARMY 32–19 TLSA

✓ ARMY (82%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -11

CloseARMY -13.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -11

2.5 → ARMY

CloseARMY -13.5

2.5 pts toward Army

Total

Open51.5

▼ 1

Close50.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -11 · closed ARMY -13.5 · moved 2.5 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -10

model ARMY -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 11.5–15.5 since 2023: won 87%, covered 58% (45 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 44% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -11

CloseARMY -13.5

Total51.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 13.5-point road favorite at TLSA, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 49–7; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 50.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 80%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.9 against an average line of 11.8; 58.7 points a game (usually 55.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-14.5	30–13	W	U47.5
Very close	AFA @ USU 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-11.5	27–34	L	O53.75
Very close	HOU @ USF 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-13.5	54–42	L	O53
Very close	TULN @ USF 2022 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12	45–31	W	O55
Very close	TROY @ USM 2021 · Week 3 · very close · similar total & rest	-11	21–9	W	U49.5
Very close	ARMY @ BALL 2021 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.25	16–28	L	U47.25
Close	UL @ RICE 2022 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-11.5	21–33	L	O52
Close	JMU @ ARST 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-11.5	42–20	W	O55
Close	DUKE @ BC 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-12	38–31	L	O47.25
Close	UAB @ RICE 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar total & situation	-10.5	24–28	L	O51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARMY WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0
TLSA LWLWL	2-3	40%	0-2	2-2

Venue/role: ARMY away, as favorite; TLSA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARMY OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0
TLSA OUUUO	2-3	40%	2-3

Went over in Q4. Of 261 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–54.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARMY	8-2 80%	6-3 67%	5-4 56%
TLSA	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ARMY 1–2 TLSA TLSA leads · 3 games since 2007 · TLSA has won the last meeting

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARMY−16.8 →−1.6▲ 15.2#74

TLSA−9.9 →−13.9▼ 4.0#123

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

ARMY

Longer bar = better

TLSA

#16

Offense

◀ ARMY better

#89

#45

Defense

◀ ARMY better

#105

+1.3 #15

Turnovers

◀ ARMY better

0.0 #72

65 plays #84

Pace

TLSA faster ▶

72 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	36.3 #30	34.6 #124	ARMY
Yards / play	6.86 #29	6.26 #115	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.46 #5	+0.22 #111	ARMY
Success rate	60% #1	40% #69	ARMY

When TLSA has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	TLSA off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #79	10.5 #6	ARMY
Yards / play	5.82 #77	4.80 #35	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.10 #88	+0.06 #60	ARMY
Success rate	38% #110	41% #77	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ARMY scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	8.8 #34	10.5 #43	19.3 #31	8.3 #39	8.8 #40	17.0 #33
TLSA allowed	5.6 #82	10.4 #116	16.0 #103	10.4 #127	8.2 #108	18.6 #130

TLSA scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	4.8 #90	9.4 #57	14.2 #74	4.2 #106	8.8 #39	13.0 #72
ARMY allowed	1.8 #11	1.8 #6	3.5 #2	3.3 #25	3.8 #36	7.0 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.