UAB @ Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sat, Oct 12, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Army · Conference game

Weather at kickoff66°F11 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UAB

1-4 · Power #116

final

Final

Army

5-0 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARMY -25.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

55.5

▼ Under · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 15–39 ARMY

✓ ARMY (96%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -24.5

CloseARMY -25.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -24.5

1 → ARMY

CloseARMY -25.5

1 pt toward Army

Total

Open55.5

no move

Close55.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -24.5 · closed ARMY -25.5 · moved 1 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -19.5

model ARMY -19.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 23.5–27.5 since 2023: won 94%, covered 48% (67 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 49% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -24.5

CloseARMY -25.5

Total55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 25.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 10, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 44–10; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 54 points stayed under 55.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 92%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 20.6 against an average line of 24.1; 56.8 points a game (usually 54.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UK vs NIU 2022 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-26.75	31–23	L	O53
Close	ARK vs GASO 2021 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-23	45–10	W	O52.5
Close	TOL vs WMU 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.5	49–31	L	O52.5
Close	CIN vs USF 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-27	28–24	L	U58.5
Close	AUB vs GAST 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-27.5	34–24	L	O57.5
Close	APP vs GASO 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-24.5	27–3	L	U55
Close	UCF vs GT 2022 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-21	27–10	L	U56.5
Loose	USC vs ASU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-24.5	42–25	L	O61
Loose	SMU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest	-20.5	69–10	W	O55
Loose	CCU vs TXST 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & situation	-24.5	35–21	L	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB WL–LL	1-3	25%	0-1	0-2
ARMY WWWWW	5-0	100%	2-0	4-0

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; ARMY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB UU–OO	2-2	50%	1-4
ARMY OUOOO	4-1	80%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 12 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 52% of games with totals 51.5–59.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	5-4 56%
ARMY	9-1 90%	7-2 78%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−6.4 →−12.8▼ 6.4#115

ARMY−16.8 →+1.9▲ 18.7#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

UAB

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#91

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#117

Defense

ARMY better ▶

#28

−1.8 #133

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+1.0 #17

70 plays #36

Pace

◀ UAB faster

61 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	UAB off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	22.4 #109	9.8 #5	ARMY
Yards / play	5.23 #107	4.53 #15	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.08 #92	+0.03 #42	ARMY
Success rate	45% #55	39% #51	Even

When ARMY has the ball

Advantage: ARMY offense

	ARMY off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	38.8 #20	36.8 #125	ARMY
Yards / play	7.41 #9	5.95 #102	ARMY
PPA / play	+0.55 #2	+0.22 #115	ARMY
Success rate	59% #1	48% #125	ARMY

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	6.6 #65	6.0 #106	12.6 #92	2.0 #126	7.8 #47	9.8 #117
ARMY allowed	2.8 #23	1.4 #4	4.2 #5	2.6 #13	3.0 #16	5.6 #10

ARMY scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	8.4 #32	11.2 #32	19.6 #26	10.8 #8	8.4 #40	19.2 #13
UAB allowed	7.2 #104	11.6 #125	18.8 #120	9.2 #124	8.8 #112	18.0 #127

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.