UAB @ South Florida: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2024)

Sat, Oct 19, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 8 · at South Florida · Conference game

Weather at kickoff81°F16 mphgusts 30DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

UAB

1-5 · Power #116

final

Final

South Florida

2-4 · Power #91

▲ winner

Closing spread

USF -14.5

✓ UAB W

Total

56.5

▲ Over · 60 pts

Model before kickoff

UAB 21–35 USF

✓ USF (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -14

CloseUSF -14.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSF -14

0.5 → USF

CloseUSF -14.5

0.5 pts toward South Florida

Total

Open57.5

▼ 1

Close56.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USF -14 · closed USF -14.5 · moved 0.5 toward USFmodel USF -12

model USF -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 13.5–15.5 since 2023: won 89%, covered 54% (61 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSF -14

CloseUSF -14.5

Total57.5 → 56.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like USF as a 14.5-point home favorite against UAB, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USF won 35–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 60 points went over 56.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.5 against an average line of 13.3; 59.7 points a game (usually 54.1). Of the 2 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TLSA vs USF 2022 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-13.75	48–42	L	O57.5
Close	APP vs USM 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total	-16	48–38	L	O55.5
Close	UL vs ULM 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-12.5	52–21	W	O53.25
Close	WSU vs STAN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	7–10	L	U58
Close	ECU vs TEM 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-15.5	45–3	W	U52.25
Close	GAST vs ULM 2022 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-13.5	28–31	L	U59.5
Close	CMU vs FIU 2021 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-12	31–27	L	O55.5
Close	GAST vs TXST 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar team ratings & total	-10.5	28–16	W	U58.5
Close	WSU vs ARIZ 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-14.75	44–18	W	O52.5
Close	MTSU vs FIU 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & total	-10.5	50–10	W	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UAB L–LLL	1-4	20%	0-2	0-3
USF W–LLL	1-3	25%	0-2	—

Venue/role: UAB away, as underdog; USF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UAB U–OOU	2-3	40%	1-5
USF U–OUU	1-3	25%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 261 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–60.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UAB	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%
USF	5-5 50%	3-5 38%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UAB 2–3 USF USF leads · 5 games since 2003 · USF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 7 2023	South Florida 35 @ UAB 56	USF -3	UAB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UAB−6.4 →−14.9▼ 8.5#122

USF−4.4 →−6.6▼ 2.2#95

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

UAB

Longer bar = better

USF

#95

Offense

◀ UAB better

#116

#126

Defense

USF better ▶

#97

−1.8 #134

Turnovers

USF better ▶

+0.3 #52

69 plays #46

Pace

USF faster ▶

70 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	USF def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #118	30.8 #107	Even
Yards / play	5.16 #109	6.13 #109	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #117	+0.20 #115	Even
Success rate	47% #35	40% #55	Even

When USF has the ball

Even matchup

	USF off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	23.5 #106	38.0 #129	USF
Yards / play	5.00 #117	6.30 #120	Even
PPA / play	+0.01 #118	+0.26 #124	Even
Success rate	37% #123	51% #129	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UAB scoring against the USF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	6.0 #75	5.0 #118	11.0 #103	1.7 #131	7.7 #54	9.3 #116
USF allowed	10.5 #131	7.0 #65	17.5 #115	2.3 #9	11.0 #128	13.3 #91

USF scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USF scored	6.7 #57	8.3 #70	15.0 #59	6.8 #61	1.7 #134	8.5 #123
UAB allowed	9.3 #127	12.0 #128	21.3 #129	8.8 #123	7.8 #103	16.7 #125

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.