Tulsa @ UAB: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 2:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at UAB · Conference game

Weather at kickoff77°F3 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Tulsa

3-5 · Power #131

final

Final

UAB

1-6 · Power #116

▲ winner

Closing spread

UAB -2.5

✓ UAB W

Total

57.5

▲ Over · 80 pts

Model before kickoff

TLSA 27–30 UAB

✓ UAB (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUAB -3

CloseUAB -2.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUAB -3

0.5 → TLSA

CloseUAB -2.5

0.5 pts toward Tulsa

Total

Open57.5

no move

Close57.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UAB -3 · closed UAB -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward TLSAmodel UAB -6

model UAB -6

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 48% (172 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUAB -3

CloseUAB -2.5

Total57.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UAB as a 2.5-point home favorite against TLSA, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: UAB won 59–21; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 80 points went over 57.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 2.4; 55.8 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USM vs ULM 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	24–7	W	U56.5
Very close	ARST vs TXST 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2	22–24	L	U62.25
Very close	WMU vs CMU 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–28	W	O57.5
Very close	LT vs UTEP 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.75	41–31	W	O52.25
Very close	TLSA vs TEM 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	48–26	W	O55
Very close	FAU vs TLSA 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	20–17	P	U54.5
Very close	RICE vs UNT 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	24–30	L	U55
Close	TXST vs GASO 2021 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2	30–38	L	O52
Close	USM vs ODU 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar total & spread	-3	13–17	L	U56.5
Close	MASS vs ARST 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar total & team ratings	-1.5	28–52	L	O55

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TLSA WLLLW	3-5	38%	2-2	3-4
UAB –LLLW	2-4	33%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: TLSA away, as underdog; UAB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TLSA UOOUO	4-4	50%	3-5
UAB –OOUO	3-3	50%	1-6

Went over in Q3. Of 268 earlier overs in games with totals 53.5–61.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TLSA	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
UAB	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

TLSA 4–2 UAB TLSA leads · 6 games since 2007 · UAB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TLSA−9.9 →−17.6▼ 7.7#128

UAB−6.4 →−14.2▼ 7.8#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

TLSA

Longer bar = better

UAB

#109

Offense

Even

#101

#103

Defense

◀ TLSA better

#119

−0.3 #87

Turnovers

◀ TLSA better

−1.6 #135

71 plays #24

Pace

Even

72 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TLSA has the ball

Even matchup

	TLSA off	UAB def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #92	37.6 #130	TLSA
Yards / play	5.33 #104	6.07 #103	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #110	+0.22 #119	Even
Success rate	36% #129	47% #123	Even

When UAB has the ball

Even matchup

	UAB off	TLSA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #117	35.9 #123	Even
Yards / play	5.20 #114	6.44 #124	Even
PPA / play	−0.01 #120	+0.20 #114	Even
Success rate	45% #51	40% #49	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TLSA scoring against the UAB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TLSA scored	3.9 #111	6.8 #103	10.6 #110	6.0 #71	8.3 #34	14.3 #52
UAB allowed	8.0 #120	11.3 #126	19.3 #127	9.4 #131	8.9 #112	18.3 #130

UAB scoring against the TLSA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UAB scored	5.6 #80	5.1 #122	10.7 #108	2.9 #126	7.4 #63	10.3 #110
TLSA allowed	6.5 #98	12.6 #129	19.1 #126	10.0 #132	6.8 #81	16.8 #120

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.