Oregon @ Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Michigan · Conference game

Weather at kickoff52°F2 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Oregon

8-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Final

Michigan

5-3 · Power #27

final

Closing spread

ORE -14.5

✓ ORE W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

ORE 31–17 MICH

✓ ORE (84%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -15.5

CloseORE -14.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -15.5

1 → MICH

CloseORE -14.5

1 pt toward Michigan

Total

Open45.5

no move

Close45.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -15.5 · closed ORE -14.5 · moved 1 toward MICHmodel ORE -11

model ORE -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 12.5–16.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 53% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 52% (85 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -15.5

CloseORE -14.5

Total45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 14.5-point road favorite at MICH, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: ORE won 38–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.9 against an average line of 13.4; 51.3 points a game (usually 54.2). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ALA @ AUB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & situation	-14.5	27–24	L	O48
Very close	ALA @ MSST 2023 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & season form	-14.5	40–17	W	O46.5
Close	LSU @ TA&M 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-10	23–38	L	O47.5
Close	PSU @ ILL 2023 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total	-14	30–13	W	U47.5
Close	SMU @ DUKE 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-11.5	28–27	L	O49.5
Close	CLEM @ FSU 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & total	-16.5	29–13	L	U47
Close	CLEM @ NCSU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & situation	-10	17–24	L	U44.5
Close	PSU @ RUTG 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-18.5	55–10	W	O45
Close	CLEM @ SC 2021 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	30–0	W	U42.5
Close	OU @ KSU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	37–31	L	O53

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ORE LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-1	2-3
MICH WLLLW	2-4	33%	2-2	1-2

Venue/role: ORE away, as favorite; MICH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ORE UUOUU	2-4	33%	8-0
MICH OOOUO	5-1	83%	5-3

Went over in Q3. Of 248 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–49.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ORE	9-1 90%	4-4 50%	2-5-1 29%
MICH	7-3 70%	4-4 50%	6-2 75%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ORE+22.4 →+20.8▼ 1.6#6

MICH+21.1 →+6.7▼ 14.4#37

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

ORE

Longer bar = better

MICH

#15

Offense

◀ ORE better

#100

#29

Defense

◀ ORE better

#48

+0.4 #43

Turnovers

◀ ORE better

−0.8 #111

68 plays #55

Pace

◀ ORE faster

60 plays #127

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	MICH def	Edge
Points / game	35.0 #24	21.5 #43	Even
Yards / play	6.87 #15	5.03 #37	ORE
PPA / play	+0.30 #13	+0.12 #80	ORE
Success rate	52% #7	39% #32	ORE

When MICH has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	MICH off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #113	15.6 #10	ORE
Yards / play	5.04 #117	4.94 #28	ORE
PPA / play	+0.05 #109	+0.05 #42	ORE
Success rate	44% #62	39% #34	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ORE scoring against the MICH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	8.6 #24	13.5 #3	22.1 #10	3.3 #120	9.6 #15	12.9 #70
MICH allowed	3.0 #19	5.8 #36	8.8 #22	4.0 #29	8.8 #111	12.8 #82

MICH scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MICH scored	3.5 #115	8.4 #64	11.9 #103	3.6 #113	6.0 #88	9.6 #116
ORE allowed	2.9 #16	5.6 #35	8.5 #19	2.9 #12	4.3 #17	7.1 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.