Illinois @ Oregon: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sat, Oct 26, 2024, 3:30 PM EDTWeek 9 · at Oregon · Conference game

Weather at kickoff72°F10 mphgusts 19DryWeather watch ›

Illinois

6-1 · Power #44

final

Final

Oregon

7-0 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

ORE -22.5

✓ ORE W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 47 pts

Model before kickoff

ILL 15–37 ORE

✓ ORE (94%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -22

CloseORE -22.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenORE -22

0.5 → ORE

CloseORE -22.5

0.5 pts toward Oregon

Total

Open54.5

no move

Close54.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ORE -22 · closed ORE -22.5 · moved 0.5 toward OREmodel ORE -21.5

model ORE -21.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 20.5–24.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 46% (80 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenORE -22

CloseORE -22.5

Total54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ORE as a 22.5-point home favorite against ILL, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: ORE won 38–9; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 47 points stayed under 54.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 91%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 17.5 against an average line of 21.7; 54.1 points a game (usually 54.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLEM vs UVA 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20	48–31	L	O57.5
Very close	ALA vs SC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-21	27–25	L	O50
Very close	ALA vs AUB 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-22	49–27	P	O51
Very close	ORE vs MSU 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-22.5	31–10	L	U53
Very close	CLEM vs WAKE 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-21	17–12	L	U53
Very close	TEX vs BYU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar situation & rest	-20.5	35–6	W	U49.5
Very close	FSU vs VT 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & total	-24	39–17	L	O52.5
Very close	CLEM vs STAN 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & situation	-24	40–14	W	U58
Close	ALA vs MSST 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & situation	-21.25	30–6	W	U61.5
Close	ALA vs ARK 2021 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & spread	-20.5	42–35	L	O58.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ILL LWWLW	5-2	71%	2-0	4-0
ORE –LLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3

Venue/role: ILL away, as underdog; ORE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ILL UOUOU	2-5	29%	6-1
ORE –UUOU	2-3	40%	7-0

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ORE	9-1 90%	4-4 50%	2-5-1 29%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

ILL 1–3 ORE ORE leads · 4 games since 1970 · ORE has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from CollegeFootballData.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ILL−0.5 →+4.1▲ 4.6#51

ORE+22.4 →+20.3▼ 2.1#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

ILL

Longer bar = better

ORE

#57

Offense

ORE better ▶

#19

#73

Defense

ORE better ▶

#31

+1.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ ILL better

+0.3 #54

63 plays #109

Pace

ORE faster ▶

68 plays #54

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: ORE defense

	ILL off	ORE def	Edge
Points / game	29.6 #63	16.6 #14	ORE
Yards / play	5.80 #75	5.04 #35	ORE
PPA / play	+0.26 #20	+0.05 #43	ILL
Success rate	43% #68	38% #32	ORE

When ORE has the ball

Advantage: ORE offense

	ORE off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	34.6 #27	18.1 #22	Even
Yards / play	6.73 #20	5.45 #67	ORE
PPA / play	+0.26 #19	+0.12 #84	ORE
Success rate	50% #9	47% #120	ORE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ILL scoring against the ORE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	7.3 #44	8.6 #67	15.9 #50	5.0 #90	6.7 #78	11.7 #96
ORE allowed	2.9 #15	6.4 #48	9.3 #32	2.4 #8	4.9 #36	7.3 #12

ORE scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ORE scored	7.9 #32	12.4 #11	20.3 #18	3.7 #114	10.6 #9	14.3 #55
ILL allowed	2.9 #15	4.3 #16	7.1 #9	4.4 #39	5.7 #54	10.1 #34

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.