Minnesota @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2024)

Sat, Nov 2, 2024, 12:00 PM EDTWeek 10 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

Minnesota

5-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Final

Illinois

6-2 · Power #44

final

Closing spread

MINN -2.5

✓ MINN W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 42 pts

Model before kickoff

MINN 23–21 ILL

✓ MINN (57%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -1.5

CloseMINN -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMINN -1.5

1 → MINN

CloseMINN -2.5

1 pt toward Minnesota

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MINN -1.5 · closed MINN -2.5 · moved 1 toward MINNmodel MINN -1.5

model MINN -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 46% (116 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (76 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMINN -1.5

CloseMINN -2.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MINN as a 2.5-point road favorite at ILL, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: MINN won 25–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 42 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 57%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.1 against an average line of 3.3; 49.5 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	OKST @ WVU 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–3	W	U49
Very close	AFA @ CSU 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	35–21	W	O45
Very close	ISU @ OKST 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.75	14–20	L	U47.5
Very close	APP @ UL 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	16–24	L	U52
Very close	MD @ RUTG 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	42–24	W	O45.5
Very close	MSU @ PUR 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	29–40	L	O53.5
Very close	BSU @ SDSU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3	16–27	L	U44.25
Very close	NEB @ MINN 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	23–30	L	O48.5
Very close	UTAH @ ASU 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	19–27	L	U46.5
Very close	NCST @ MIA 2021 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	30–31	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MINN LWWWW	6-2	75%	2-0	4-0
ILL WWLWL	5-3	63%	3-2	4-1

Venue/role: MINN away, as favorite; ILL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MINN OOUUO	4-4	50%	5-3
ILL OUOUU	2-6	25%	6-2

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 43.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MINN	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ILL	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MINN 0–1 ILL ILL leads · 1 game since 2023 · ILL has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 4 2023	Illinois 27 @ Minnesota 26	MINN -2.5	ILL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MINN−1.4 →+7.1▲ 8.5#36

ILL−0.5 →+3.3▲ 3.8#57

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MINN

Longer bar = better

ILL

#58

Offense

Even

#64

#24

Defense

◀ MINN better

#88

+1.3 #10

Turnovers

◀ MINN better

+0.8 #25

62 plays #119

Pace

ILL faster ▶

64 plays #105

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MINN has the ball

Advantage: MINN offense

	MINN off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #68	20.6 #34	ILL
Yards / play	5.44 #94	5.77 #90	Even
PPA / play	+0.19 #47	+0.17 #101	MINN
Success rate	47% #23	48% #125	MINN

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: MINN defense

	ILL off	MINN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #81	16.8 #12	MINN
Yards / play	5.61 #81	4.70 #14	MINN
PPA / play	+0.24 #23	+0.01 #26	Even
Success rate	44% #69	39% #43	MINN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MINN scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MINN scored	4.1 #103	9.9 #39	14.0 #73	5.3 #86	8.6 #28	13.9 #61
ILL allowed	4.3 #45	6.4 #46	10.6 #45	3.9 #25	5.4 #45	9.3 #24

ILL scoring against the MINN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	6.8 #54	7.5 #83	14.3 #66	5.1 #89	5.9 #96	11.0 #102
MINN allowed	2.6 #15	5.5 #31	8.1 #15	4.1 #32	4.5 #27	8.6 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.