Michigan State @ Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 2:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Illinois · Conference game

Weather at kickoff53°F10 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Michigan State

4-5 · Power #70

final

Final

Illinois

6-3 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

ILL -1.5

✓ ILL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

MSU 22–24 ILL

✓ ILL (56%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -3.5

CloseILL -1.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenILL -3.5

2 → MSU

CloseILL -1.5

2 pts toward Michigan State

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ILL -3.5 · closed ILL -1.5 · moved 2 toward MSUmodel ILL -5

model ILL -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 51%, covered 47% (114 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (38 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenILL -3.5

CloseILL -1.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ILL as a 1.5-point home favorite against MSU, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 38–16; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 47.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 3.1; 52.4 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KU vs HOU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	42–14	W	O45.5
Very close	BOIS vs WYO 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	32–7	W	U48.5
Very close	DUKE vs FSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	23–16	W	U43
Very close	VT vs SYR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	38–10	W	O47
Very close	STAN vs WASH 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	13–20	L	U46
Very close	SC vs MIZ 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	10–23	L	U45.25
Very close	MINN vs ILL 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2	26–27	L	O44
Close	FLA vs ARK 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	36–39	L	O49.5
Close	WVU vs OKST 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-3	34–48	L	O48.5
Close	SYR vs WAKE 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-2	35–31	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MSU LWWLL	4-5	44%	3-1	4-3
ILL WLWLL	5-4	56%	3-3	1-2

Venue/role: MSU away, as underdog; ILL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MSU UUOOO	4-5	44%	4-5
ILL UOUUU	2-7	22%	6-3

Went over in Q4. Of 305 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–51.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MSU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
ILL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MSU−3.8 →+0.9▲ 4.7#64

ILL−0.5 →+2.9▲ 3.4#59

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

MSU

Longer bar = better

ILL

#98

Offense

ILL better ▶

#64

Defense

◀ MSU better

#84

−1.0 #126

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+0.4 #41

62 plays #115

Pace

Even

63 plays #103

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MSU has the ball

Even matchup

	MSU off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #122	21.1 #32	ILL
Yards / play	5.54 #88	5.70 #78	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #109	+0.16 #99	Even
Success rate	43% #73	48% #125	MSU

When ILL has the ball

Even matchup

	ILL off	MSU def	Edge
Points / game	25.9 #87	24.1 #65	MSU
Yards / play	5.62 #80	5.35 #56	MSU
PPA / play	+0.22 #26	+0.12 #76	ILL
Success rate	44% #62	41% #59	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

MSU scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MSU scored	5.4 #80	6.7 #108	12.1 #96	1.8 #130	5.9 #98	7.7 #128
ILL allowed	4.1 #43	6.8 #50	10.9 #45	3.8 #25	5.8 #54	9.6 #23

ILL scoring against the MSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	6.0 #65	7.8 #77	13.8 #68	4.6 #100	6.0 #93	10.6 #109
MSU allowed	2.7 #15	8.2 #82	10.9 #45	7.8 #112	5.4 #45	13.2 #82

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.