Penn State @ Purdue: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Purdue · Conference game

Weather at kickoff55°F9 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Penn State

8-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Purdue

1-8 · Power #117

final

Closing spread

PSU -30.5

✓ PSU W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 59 pts

Model before kickoff

PSU 41–10 PUR

✓ PSU (99%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -28.5

ClosePSU -30.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPSU -28.5

2 → PSU

ClosePSU -30.5

2 pts toward Penn State

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PSU -28.5 · closed PSU -30.5 · moved 2 toward PSUmodel PSU -30.5 matches the line

model PSU -30.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (98 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPSU -28.5

ClosePSU -30.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PSU as a 30.5-point road favorite at PUR, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: PSU won 49–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 59 points went over 51.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 96%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 54%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 28.3 against an average line of 30.1; 60.5 points a game (usually 55.9). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ORE @ PUR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-29.5	35–0	W	U61
Close	UTAH @ COLO 2022 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-30	63–21	W	O52
Close	UGA @ VAN 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-32.5	37–20	L	O55
Close	WASH @ STAN 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-27.5	42–33	L	O62
Close	ND @ STAN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-26	56–23	W	O50
Close	ORE @ COLO 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & rest	-31	49–10	W	U62.5
Loose	CIN @ NAVY 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-28.5	27–20	L	U49.25
Loose	LIB @ ULM 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest	-32.5	28–31	L	O56.75
Loose	MIZ @ MASS 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-27	45–3	W	U53.5
Loose	UGA @ VAN 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-36	62–0	W	O54.25

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PSU LLWLW	3-5	38%	2-1	3-4
PUR LWLLL	2-7	22%	1-4	1-6

Venue/role: PSU away, as favorite; PUR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PSU UOUUU	2-6	25%	8-1
PUR OOUOU	5-4	56%	1-8

Went over in Q4. Of 366 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 36% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PSU	8-2 80%	3-6 33%	3-6 33%
PUR	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PSU+18.8 →+19.7▲ 0.9#8

PUR+1.0 →−10.4▼ 11.4#107

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

PSU

Longer bar = better

PUR

#19

Offense

◀ PSU better

#98

#11

Defense

◀ PSU better

#131

+0.3 #49

Turnovers

◀ PSU better

−0.8 #119

65 plays #92

Pace

◀ PSU faster

56 plays #136

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PSU has the ball

Advantage: PSU offense

	PSU off	PUR def	Edge
Points / game	31.2 #45	37.8 #130	PSU
Yards / play	6.89 #9	6.72 #130	PSU
PPA / play	+0.26 #15	+0.36 #137	PSU
Success rate	51% #5	48% #126	PSU

When PUR has the ball

Advantage: PSU defense

	PUR off	PSU def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #130	14.0 #8	PSU
Yards / play	5.70 #72	4.51 #7	PSU
PPA / play	+0.06 #106	0.00 #19	PSU
Success rate	42% #82	36% #11	PSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

PSU scoring against the PUR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PSU scored	4.6 #93	11.0 #22	15.6 #53	7.7 #39	7.7 #50	15.3 #38
PUR allowed	8.4 #125	9.7 #107	18.1 #119	7.2 #108	11.0 #132	18.2 #130

PUR scoring against the PSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PUR scored	1.1 #134	4.1 #128	5.2 #134	4.9 #95	7.2 #62	12.1 #90
PSU allowed	3.8 #34	5.6 #31	9.3 #27	1.3 #2	3.3 #6	4.7 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.