Hawai'i @ Utah State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2024)

Sat, Nov 16, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Utah State · Conference game

Weather at kickoff36°F1 mphDryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Hawai'i

4-6 · Power #109

final

Final

Utah State

2-7 · Power #106

▲ winner

Closing spread

HAW -2.5

✓ USU W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

HAW 30–28 USU

✗ HAW (56%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -2

CloseHAW -2.5

Total58.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHAW -2

0.5 → HAW

CloseHAW -2.5

0.5 pts toward Hawai'i

Total

Open58.5

▲ 3

Close61.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HAW -2 · closed HAW -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward HAWmodel USU -0.5

model USU -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 55%, covered 46% (133 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHAW -2

CloseHAW -2.5

Total58.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HAW as a 2.5-point road favorite at USU, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: USU won 55–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 9 of the 10 similar games. 65 points went over 61.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 57%

Favorite covered

1 of 1010%

Below normal · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 9.7 against an average line of 3; 65.1 points a game (usually 53.1). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLT @ FIU 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	45–33	W	O60.75
Very close	MTSU @ LT 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	24–40	L	O63.5
Very close	BUFF @ OHIO 2022 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–45	L	O61
Close	FAU @ UNT 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–45	L	O67.5
Close	CMU @ OHIO 2021 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & situation	-5	30–27	L	U57.5
Close	CSU @ USU 2021 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-3	24–26	L	U58.5
Close	NIU @ OHIO 2022 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–24	L	U65.5
Close	TULN @ ECU 2021 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–52	L	O64.5
Close	LT @ CLT 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & situation	-2	21–26	L	U66.5
Close	USF @ UAB 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	35–56	L	O68.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HAW LLWWW	5-4	56%	1-2	2-1
USU LWLWL	3-5	38%	2-1	2-4

Venue/role: HAW away, as favorite; USU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HAW UUOUO	3-6	33%	4-6
USU OOOUO	6-2	75%	2-7

Went over in Q4. Of 146 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 29% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HAW	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	3-6 33%
USU	2-8 20%	3-6 33%	7-2 78%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HAW−11.7 →−7.6▲ 4.1#100

USU−6.9 →−13.7▼ 6.8#120

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

HAW

Longer bar = better

USU

#94

Offense

USU better ▶

#65

#55

Defense

◀ HAW better

#134

−0.6 #111

Turnovers

Even

−0.7 #115

67 plays #71

Pace

USU faster ▶

73 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: HAW offense

	HAW off	USU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #111	42.3 #135	HAW
Yards / play	5.23 #111	6.82 #132	HAW
PPA / play	+0.09 #95	+0.32 #135	HAW
Success rate	44% #57	50% #132	HAW

When USU has the ball

Even matchup

	USU off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #71	22.7 #54	Even
Yards / play	6.20 #42	5.43 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.13 #74	+0.11 #72	Even
Success rate	43% #74	38% #34	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

HAW scoring against the USU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	7.0 #41	3.3 #133	10.3 #117	5.8 #75	5.9 #97	11.7 #93
USU allowed	5.7 #80	17.8 #134	23.4 #133	7.9 #113	11.0 #131	18.9 #131

USU scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USU scored	5.8 #75	7.2 #92	13.0 #83	6.6 #54	8.2 #36	14.8 #45
HAW allowed	4.6 #54	6.1 #42	10.7 #42	5.8 #72	6.2 #64	12.0 #64

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.