New Mexico @ Hawai'i: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Sat, Nov 30, 2024, 11:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Hawai'i · Conference game

Weather at kickoff74°F6 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

New Mexico

5-6 · Power #111

final

Final

Hawai'i

4-7 · Power #109

▲ winner

Closing spread

UNM -6.5

✓ HAW W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 68 pts

Model before kickoff

UNM 33–29 HAW

✗ UNM (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -2.5

CloseUNM -6.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUNM -2.5

4 → UNM

CloseUNM -6.5

4 pts toward New Mexico

Total

Open61.5

no move

Close61.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened UNM -2.5 · closed UNM -6.5 · moved 4 toward UNMmodel HAW -4

model HAW -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 59% (111 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUNM -2.5

CloseUNM -6.5

Total61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like UNM as a 6.5-point road favorite at HAW, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: HAW won 38–30 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 68 points went over 61.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3.2; 53.6 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	KENT @ M-OH 2022 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-5	24–27	L	U56.5
Loose	USU @ SDSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.25	32–24	W	U56.5
Loose	APP @ CCU 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–38	L	U62.5
Loose	OHIO @ M-OH 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	37–21	W	O52
Loose	CSU @ USU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	24–44	L	O62
Loose	CMU @ M-OH 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1.75	17–28	L	U56
Loose	USU @ WYO 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-2	27–25	P	U56.5
Loose	UL @ CCU 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar spread & situation	-6.5	34–24	W	O57
Loose	HAW @ UNLV 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	13–27	L	U55.5
Loose	KENT @ BGSU 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.75	40–6	W	U55.75

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNM WLLWW	7-4	64%	4-2	3-1
HAW LWWWL	5-5	50%	4-2	3-3

Venue/role: UNM away, as favorite; HAW home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNM OUOUO	8-3	73%	5-6
HAW UOUOO	4-6	40%	4-7

Went over in Q4. Of 164 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNM	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
HAW	3-7 30%	5-4 56%	4-5 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

UNM 1–0 HAW UNM leads · 1 game since 2023 · UNM has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2023	Hawai'i 21 @ New Mexico 42	HAW -1.5	UNM W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UNM−11.4 →−10.5▲ 0.9#108

HAW−11.7 →−10.7▲ 1.0#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

UNM

Longer bar = better

HAW

#18

Offense

◀ UNM better

#102

#133

Defense

HAW better ▶

#69

−0.7 #119

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #126

70 plays #34

Pace

◀ UNM faster

67 plays #73

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UNM has the ball

Advantage: UNM offense

	UNM off	HAW def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #29	25.6 #74	UNM
Yards / play	6.96 #3	5.68 #78	UNM
PPA / play	+0.25 #18	+0.12 #81	UNM
Success rate	47% #23	39% #42	Even

When HAW has the ball

Advantage: HAW offense

	HAW off	UNM def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #121	38.0 #132	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #117	6.80 #131	Even
PPA / play	+0.06 #104	+0.30 #134	HAW
Success rate	43% #64	50% #134	HAW

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UNM scoring against the HAW defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UNM scored	7.7 #29	10.5 #30	18.3 #25	7.4 #38	8.2 #41	15.5 #34
HAW allowed	5.7 #83	6.2 #36	11.9 #54	7.2 #105	6.5 #66	13.7 #89

HAW scoring against the UNM defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HAW scored	6.4 #53	3.3 #134	9.6 #121	5.3 #83	6.0 #96	11.3 #102
UNM allowed	8.3 #122	12.4 #129	20.6 #129	5.6 #72	11.7 #132	17.4 #122

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.