Toledo @ Akron: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Tue, Nov 26, 2024, 7:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Akron · Conference game

Weather at kickoff37°F8 mphgusts 18DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Toledo

7-4 · Power #88

final

Final

Akron

3-8 · Power #124

▲ winner

Closing spread

TOL -9.5

✓ AKR W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

TOL 28–19 AKR

✗ TOL (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -7.5

CloseTOL -9.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTOL -7.5

2 → TOL

CloseTOL -9.5

2 pts toward Toledo

Total

Open48.5

▲ 2

Close50.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TOL -7.5 · closed TOL -9.5 · moved 2 toward TOLmodel TOL -8.5

model TOL -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 8.5–10.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 49% (58 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 51% (104 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTOL -7.5

CloseTOL -9.5

Total48.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TOL as a 9.5-point road favorite at AKR, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: AKR won 21–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 50.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 9.3; 59.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ECU @ CLT 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9.5	24–55	L	O47.5
Very close	WYO @ HAW 2022 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-11.5	27–20	L	U50.75
Very close	JXST @ FIU 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-9	41–16	W	O48
Very close	TOL @ EMU 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-10	29–28	L	O54.5
Very close	OHIO @ BUFF 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U45
Very close	TROY @ TXST 2021 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–28	L	O48.5
Very close	WKU @ FIU 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-11.5	41–28	W	O54.25
Very close	M-OH @ OHIO 2021 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	33–35	L	O54.5
Very close	LT @ NMSU 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & situation	-12.5	30–33	L	O48.5
Very close	NIU @ CMU 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.75	31–37	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WLLWL	5-6	45%	2-3	3-5
AKR LWLWW	5-6	45%	2-2	4-5

Venue/role: TOL away, as favorite; AKR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	7-4	64%	7-4
AKR OUOOO	8-3	73%	3-8

Stayed under: it needed 44 in the 4th quarter and got 28. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
AKR	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TOL−0.4 →−5.6▼ 5.2#93

AKR−13.9 →−16.0▼ 2.1#125

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TOL

Longer bar = better

AKR

#97

Offense

◀ TOL better

#121

#30

Defense

◀ TOL better

#105

+0.1 #69

Turnovers

◀ TOL better

−1.0 #130

66 plays #76

Pace

◀ TOL faster

64 plays #97

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TOL has the ball

Even matchup

	TOL off	AKR def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #72	33.6 #118	TOL
Yards / play	5.40 #98	6.15 #106	Even
PPA / play	+0.05 #111	+0.18 #106	Even
Success rate	40% #105	43% #89	Even

When AKR has the ball

Advantage: TOL defense

	AKR off	TOL def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #123	21.4 #35	TOL
Yards / play	5.18 #116	4.90 #22	TOL
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.03 #32	TOL
Success rate	38% #119	38% #32	TOL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

TOL scoring against the AKR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TOL scored	5.7 #72	10.2 #35	15.9 #45	5.5 #78	6.4 #88	11.9 #93
AKR allowed	8.3 #120	8.9 #92	17.2 #116	7.5 #112	9.0 #114	16.5 #117

AKR scoring against the TOL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
AKR scored	5.8 #69	7.1 #93	12.9 #84	2.9 #127	4.5 #124	7.5 #129
TOL allowed	4.0 #37	4.5 #10	8.5 #12	5.0 #48	7.9 #98	12.9 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.