Ball State @ Ohio: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Ohio · Conference game

Weather at kickoff33°F13 mphgusts 29DryWindy Over 48% of 274 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Ball State

3-8 · Power #126

final

Final

Ohio

8-3 · Power #65

▲ winner

Closing spread

OHIO -17.5

✓ OHIO W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 63 pts

Model before kickoff

BALL 16–34 OHIO

✓ OHIO (90%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -14.5

CloseOHIO -17.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenOHIO -14.5

3 → OHIO

CloseOHIO -17.5

3 pts toward Ohio

Total

Open52.5

▼ 1

Close51.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened OHIO -14.5 · closed OHIO -17.5 · moved 3 toward OHIOmodel OHIO -19

model OHIO -19

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 16.5–18.5 since 2023: won 95%, covered 53% (74 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 50% (105 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenOHIO -14.5

CloseOHIO -17.5

Total52.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like OHIO as a 17.5-point home favorite against BALL, the favorite won 10, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: OHIO won 42–21; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 63 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 89%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 838%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.6 against an average line of 17.1; 46.4 points a game (usually 54.4). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	USA vs ARST 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-14.5	21–14	L	U55
Very close	CONN vs TEM 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-17.5	29–20	L	P49
Very close	SJSU vs SDSU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-16.5	24–13	L	U48.5
Very close	OHIO vs WMU 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & season form	-16.5	20–17	L	U52
Very close	USA vs ODU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-16.5	27–20	L	P47
Very close	M-OH vs BGSU 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & season form	-17	34–7	W	U52
Very close	AFA vs UNLV 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar season form & total	-18.5	48–14	W	O49.5
Close	USA vs USM 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar total & season form	-18.5	55–3	W	O51
Close	APP vs ODU 2022 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-16	27–14	L	U50.5
Close	JMU vs ODU 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-19.5	30–27	L	O48

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BALL WWWWL	7-3	70%	3-2	6-2
OHIO LWWWW	7-4	64%	4-1	5-2

Venue/role: BALL away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BALL UOUOU	7-3	70%	3-8
OHIO OOUUU	5-6	45%	8-3

Went over in Q4. Of 395 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 35% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BALL	2-8 20%	6-3 67%	6-3 67%
OHIO	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BALL−11.2 →−17.0▼ 5.8#126

OHIO−3.6 →−2.0▲ 1.6#73

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BALL

Longer bar = better

OHIO

#97

Offense

OHIO better ▶

#65

#125

Defense

OHIO better ▶

#24

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

◀ BALL better

−0.3 #88

67 plays #67

Pace

◀ BALL faster

65 plays #84

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BALL has the ball

Advantage: OHIO defense

	BALL off	OHIO def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #91	18.5 #15	OHIO
Yards / play	5.14 #118	4.89 #21	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.07 #102	+0.04 #33	OHIO
Success rate	43% #76	37% #25	OHIO

When OHIO has the ball

Advantage: OHIO offense

	OHIO off	BALL def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #75	39.9 #133	OHIO
Yards / play	5.94 #58	6.88 #135	OHIO
PPA / play	+0.15 #62	+0.23 #117	OHIO
Success rate	44% #63	46% #115	OHIO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

BALL scoring against the OHIO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BALL scored	6.3 #54	7.0 #95	13.3 #81	5.2 #87	7.0 #69	12.2 #83
OHIO allowed	1.1 #1	8.0 #75	9.1 #20	5.4 #61	4.0 #12	9.4 #24

OHIO scoring against the BALL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
OHIO scored	3.5 #120	8.8 #55	12.4 #91	6.0 #70	8.9 #25	14.9 #50
BALL allowed	8.3 #121	10.0 #112	18.3 #121	7.2 #107	13.9 #134	21.1 #134

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.