Navy @ East Carolina: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2024)

Fri, Nov 29, 2024, 12:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at East Carolina · Conference game

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphgusts 14DryWeather watch ›

Navy

7-3 · Power #61

▲ winner

Final

East Carolina

7-4 · Power #92

final

Closing spread

—

Total

52.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

NAVY 28–26 ECU

✓ NAVY (56%) won

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NAVY WLLWL	6-4	60%	3-1	—
ECU WWWLW	7-4	64%	4-1	—

Venue/role: NAVY away; ECU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NAVY OOUUU	7-3	70%	7-3
ECU OOOOU	6-5	55%	7-4

Went over in Q4. Of 361 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–56.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NAVY	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
ECU	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NAVY 1–0 ECU NAVY leads · 1 game since 2023 · NAVY has won the last meeting

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 18 2023	East Carolina 0 @ Navy 10	NAVY -2.5	NAVY W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NAVY−17.5 →−1.3▲ 16.2#71

ECU−7.2 →−5.5▲ 1.7#92

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

NAVY

Longer bar = better

ECU

#30

Offense

Even

#42

#62

Defense

Even

#53

+0.6 #29

Turnovers

◀ NAVY better

−0.6 #113

59 plays #131

Pace

ECU faster ▶

69 plays #38

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NAVY has the ball

Advantage: NAVY offense

	NAVY off	ECU def	Edge
Points / game	32.1 #39	27.3 #82	NAVY
Yards / play	6.22 #40	5.25 #45	Even
PPA / play	+0.29 #12	+0.06 #48	NAVY
Success rate	46% #27	39% #36	Even

When ECU has the ball

Even matchup

	ECU off	NAVY def	Edge
Points / game	33.6 #29	23.5 #56	ECU
Yards / play	6.37 #32	5.62 #72	ECU
PPA / play	+0.16 #51	+0.04 #34	Even
Success rate	44% #54	43% #85	ECU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

NAVY scoring against the ECU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NAVY scored	8.1 #22	11.3 #20	19.4 #20	6.5 #54	6.2 #93	12.7 #76
ECU allowed	5.9 #88	9.1 #100	15.0 #97	6.0 #77	6.3 #62	12.3 #69

ECU scoring against the NAVY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ECU scored	8.8 #14	6.9 #99	15.7 #46	10.9 #4	7.0 #69	17.9 #9
NAVY allowed	5.6 #80	5.3 #19	10.9 #40	6.1 #81	6.5 #71	12.6 #75

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.