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NCAAF · 2024 · Week 16

Navy vs Army

Sat, Dec 14, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · Neutral site
Weather at kickoff37°F5 mphgusts 14DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›
Navy
8-3 · Power #61
31
▲ winner
Final
vs
Army
11-1 · Power #52
13
final
Closing spread
ARMY -6.5
✓ NAVY W
Total
39.5
▲ Over · 44 pts
Model before kickoff
NAVY 21–28 ARMY
✗ ARMY (67%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARMY -2.5
CloseARMY -6.5
Total41.5 → 39.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
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Market

Open → close
Spread
4 pts toward Army
Total
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ARMY -2.5 · closed ARMY -6.5 · moved 4 toward ARMYmodel ARMY -5.5
Opened 41.5 · closed 39.5 · moved 2 downmodel 49
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 47% (53 games since 2024)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenARMY -2.5
CloseARMY -6.5
Total41.5 → 39.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 6.5-point neutral-site favorite against NAVY, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: NAVY won 31–13 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 44 points went over 39.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 67%
Favorite covered
3 of 933%
Normal range · usually 50%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 50%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 5.4; 38.8 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Close
UCLA vs BOIS
2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation
 -6.535–22 W O45.25
Close
AFA vs ARMY
2022 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & season form
 -713–7 L U40.5
Loose
OKST vs BAY
2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation
 -716–21 L U45
Loose
TROY vs DUKE
2023 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation
 -6.7510–17 L U44.25
Loose
WYO vs TOL
2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & total
 -4.516–15 L U44
Loose
SDSU vs MTSU
2022 · Postseason · loose · similar spread & situation
 -723–25 L O47
Loose
UK vs IOWA
2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & situation
 -320–17 P U43.5
Loose
LOU vs CIN
2022 · Postseason · loose · similar situation
 -2.524–7 W U38.5
Loose
TA&M vs ARK
2024 · Week 5 · loose
 -6.521–17 L U50.5
Loose
SDSU vs UTSA
2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation
 -338–24 W O48
History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Army ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 873-886 (50%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 509-553 (48%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Market moved toward Army
4 pts (ARMY -2.5 → ARMY -6.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 446-443 (50%)
Total moved down 2
41.5 → 39.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 462-498 (48%)
beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution
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Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NAVY−17.5 →−0.5▲ 17.0#70
ARMY−16.8 →+4.5▲ 21.3#46
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15
NAVY
Longer bar = better
ARMY
#31
Offense
Even
#19
#56
Defense
Even
#43
+0.5 #32
Turnovers
ARMY better ▶
+1.2 #6
60 plays #129
Pace
ARMY faster ▶
63 plays #110
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NAVY has the ball
Even matchup
NAVY offARMY defEdge
Points / game 32.3 #38 15.0 #7 ARMY
Yards / play 6.23 #38 5.28 #48 Even
PPA / play +0.28 #12 +0.01 #16 Even
Success rate 46% #36 44% #99 NAVY
When ARMY has the ball
Advantage: ARMY offense
ARMY offNAVY defEdge
Points / game 32.9 #33 23.2 #51 Even
Yards / play 6.29 #33 5.56 #68 ARMY
PPA / play +0.32 #5 +0.03 #31 ARMY
Success rate 52% #3 42% #72 ARMY
Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams
NAVY scoring against the ARMY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NAVY scored
7.4
#31
10.3
#34
17.6
#30
7.2
#43
7.5
#56
14.6
#55
ARMY allowed
3.4
#18
2.8
#1
6.3
#3
3.4
#12
5.3
#35
8.8
#14
ARMY scoring against the NAVY defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
ARMY scored
7.8
#25
9.8
#41
17.5
#31
7.7
#28
7.8
#50
15.4
#35
NAVY allowed
5.1
#70
5.1
#15
10.2
#32
5.5
#69
7.5
#89
13.0
#74
Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

At kickoff
Home field
Neutral site
No home edge
Weather
37° · 5 mph
gusts 14 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NAVY15d bye
ARMY8d
NAVY +7 days
Tempo
Slow 123 plays
slowavg 134fast
Quarterback
NAVY backup QB started
Not the usual starter

Schedules, links & other games

Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
Navy← @ ECU · vs OU →
Army← vs TULN · vs LT →
ESPN box score ↗