Louisiana Tech vs Army: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 9:15 PM ESTRadiance Technologies Independence Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff54°F7 mphDryWeather watch ›

Louisiana Tech

5-7 · Power #112

final

Final

Army

11-2 · Power #52

▲ winner

Closing spread

ARMY -14.5

✓ ARMY W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

LT 14–28 ARMY

✓ ARMY (85%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -15.5

CloseARMY -14.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARMY -15.5

1 → LT

CloseARMY -14.5

1 pt toward Louisiana Tech

Total

Open43.5

▲ 1

Close44.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARMY -15.5 · closed ARMY -14.5 · moved 1 toward LTmodel ARMY -14.5 matches the line

model ARMY -14.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 50% (143 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARMY -15.5

CloseARMY -14.5

Total43.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARMY as a 14.5-point neutral-site favorite against LT, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: ARMY won 27–6; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 44.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 83%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.9 against an average line of 11.1; 45.3 points a game (usually 54). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	UAB vs M-OH 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-10.75	24–20	L	U45.75
Close	MRSH vs CONN 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & total	-12.25	28–14	W	P42
Close	FRES vs UTEP 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-13	31–24	L	O54.5
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Loose	ND vs NAVY 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-17	35–32	L	O40.5
Loose	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Loose	PUR vs NU 2021 · Week 12 · loose	-11	32–14	W	U47.5
Loose	SMU vs BC 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-13.5	14–23	L	U48.75
Loose	UTAH vs NU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	7–14	L	U44
Loose	ILL vs NU 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar total	-9	38–28	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
LT WWWWW	7-4	64%	—	5-0
ARMY WLLWL	8-5	62%	0-2	6-4

Venue/role: LT neutral, as underdog; ARMY neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LT UOUOU	5-6	45%	5-7
ARMY UOUOO	8-5	62%	11-2

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 55% of games with totals 40.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LT	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
ARMY	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LT−10.2 →−10.4▼ 0.2#106

ARMY−16.8 →+2.9▲ 19.7#58

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

ARMY

#122

Offense

ARMY better ▶

#26

#13

Defense

◀ LT better

#49

−0.3 #92

Turnovers

ARMY better ▶

+0.8 #13

71 plays #23

Pace

◀ LT faster

62 plays #114

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LT has the ball

Advantage: ARMY defense

	LT off	ARMY def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #116	16.2 #8	ARMY
Yards / play	4.86 #124	5.43 #56	ARMY
PPA / play	−0.02 #126	+0.04 #33	ARMY
Success rate	38% #122	44% #100	ARMY

When ARMY has the ball

Even matchup

	ARMY off	LT def	Edge
Points / game	31.4 #41	20.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	6.10 #46	4.62 #8	LT
PPA / play	+0.27 #9	+0.01 #16	Even
Success rate	50% #6	36% #6	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

LT scoring against the ARMY defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LT scored	4.1 #105	7.9 #75	12.0 #97	4.3 #107	5.3 #113	9.7 #116
ARMY allowed	3.7 #28	3.2 #2	6.8 #4	3.7 #14	5.7 #45	9.4 #20

ARMY scoring against the LT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARMY scored	7.2 #34	9.5 #42	16.7 #33	7.3 #38	7.4 #59	14.7 #51
LT allowed	4.5 #49	5.1 #15	9.6 #21	4.9 #48	4.4 #12	9.3 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.