Western Kentucky vs James Madison: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Boca Raton Bowl, 2024)

Wed, Dec 18, 2024, 5:30 PM ESTBoca Raton Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff75°F4 mphDryWeather watch ›

Western Kentucky

8-5 · Power #103

final

Final

James Madison

8-4 · Power #59

▲ winner

Closing spread

JMU -7.5

✓ JMU W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

WKU 23–31 JMU

✓ JMU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -4.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenJMU -4.5

3 → JMU

CloseJMU -7.5

3 pts toward James Madison

Total

Open53.5

▼ 3

Close50.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened JMU -4.5 · closed JMU -7.5 · moved 3 toward JMUmodel JMU -12

model JMU -12

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 61% (28 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJMU -4.5

CloseJMU -7.5

Total53.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JMU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against WKU, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JMU won 27–17; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 7.2; 49.6 points a game (usually 53.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar total & team ratings	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Close	SYR vs USF 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-4.25	0–45	L	U55.75
Close	UCLA vs BOIS 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	35–22	W	O45.25
Close	AFA vs ARMY 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-7	13–7	L	U40.5
Close	ECU vs USF 2022 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings	-9.5	48–28	W	O55.5
Close	SDSU vs MTSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-7	23–25	L	O47
Close	ARMY vs MIZ 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-7	24–22	L	U54
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & spread	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Close	TOL vs LIB 2022 · Postseason · close · similar total & situation	-3.5	21–19	L	U51

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
WKU LLLWL	7-6	54%	—	4-3
JMU LWWLL	5-6	45%	—	4-6

Venue/role: WKU neutral, as underdog; JMU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WKU OUOUO	6-7	46%	8-5
JMU UUOUO	4-7	36%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 55% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WKU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
JMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WKU−5.2 →−8.2▼ 3.0#102

JMU+2.2 →+2.6▲ 0.4#60

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

WKU

Longer bar = better

JMU

#76

Offense

JMU better ▶

#58

#89

Defense

JMU better ▶

#13

−0.1 #69

Turnovers

JMU better ▶

+1.4 #1

65 plays #83

Pace

JMU faster ▶

69 plays #41

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WKU has the ball

Advantage: JMU defense

	WKU off	JMU def	Edge
Points / game	25.5 #91	20.8 #27	JMU
Yards / play	5.79 #72	4.87 #19	JMU
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	−0.08 #3	JMU
Success rate	43% #70	34% #1	JMU

When JMU has the ball

Advantage: JMU offense

	JMU off	WKU def	Edge
Points / game	33.8 #25	24.5 #65	JMU
Yards / play	5.92 #60	5.94 #95	JMU
PPA / play	+0.10 #87	+0.13 #86	Even
Success rate	44% #58	45% #108	JMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

WKU scoring against the JMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WKU scored	7.5 #29	6.7 #100	14.2 #69	5.1 #93	6.3 #88	11.4 #100
JMU allowed	3.8 #29	8.3 #83	12.0 #54	4.8 #44	3.1 #5	7.8 #9

JMU scoring against the WKU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JMU scored	9.1 #10	10.3 #32	19.4 #16	7.2 #43	6.5 #81	13.7 #62
WKU allowed	4.8 #55	8.0 #75	12.8 #71	5.8 #74	5.8 #52	11.7 #57

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.