South Alabama vs Western Michigan: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 14, 2024, 9:00 PM ESTIS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

South Alabama

6-6 · Power #66

▲ winner

Final

Western Michigan

6-6 · Power #107

final

Closing spread

USA -5.5

✓ USA W

Total

54.5

▼ Under · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

USA 33–26 WMU

✓ USA (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -10.5

CloseUSA -5.5

Total60.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenUSA -10.5

5 → WMU

CloseUSA -5.5

5 pts toward Western Michigan

Total

Open60.5

▼ 6

Close54.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened USA -10.5 · closed USA -5.5 · moved 5 toward WMUmodel USA -11.5

model USA -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 63% (27 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenUSA -10.5

CloseUSA -5.5

Total60.5 → 54.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 7 games most like USA as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against WMU, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: USA won 30–23; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 7 similar games. 53 points stayed under 54.5, as in 6 of 7.

Favorite won

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 757%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 714%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 7 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.7 against an average line of 5.9; 41.6 points a game (usually 53.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 7 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	MEM vs USU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-8	38–10	W	U57
Close	UTSA vs MRSH 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	35–17	W	O46.75
Loose	SJSU vs CCU 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	14–24	L	U48.5
Loose	TOL vs OHIO 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar total	-3.5	17–7	W	U54.5
Loose	SYR vs USF 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.25	0–45	L	U55.75
Loose	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation	-5.5	21–24	L	U56

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
USA WLWLL	4-7	36%	—	3-5
WMU WLLLW	5-7	42%	—	1-4

Venue/role: USA neutral, as favorite; WMU neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
USA OOUUO	5-6	45%	6-6
WMU OOUUU	7-5	58%	6-6

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 17. 52% of games with totals 50.5–58.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USA	6-4 60%	4-5 44%	4-5 44%
WMU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

USA+0.8 →−0.1▼ 0.9#68

WMU−10.3 →−10.7▼ 0.4#109

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

USA

Longer bar = better

WMU

#11

Offense

◀ USA better

#47

#69

Defense

◀ USA better

#117

+0.7 #24

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #22

65 plays #92

Pace

◀ USA faster

62 plays #120

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When USA has the ball

Advantage: USA offense

	USA off	WMU def	Edge
Points / game	34.8 #20	31.4 #110	USA
Yards / play	6.70 #9	6.21 #113	USA
PPA / play	+0.31 #7	+0.22 #118	USA
Success rate	49% #9	48% #127	USA

When WMU has the ball

Advantage: WMU offense

	WMU off	USA def	Edge
Points / game	29.4 #56	25.3 #72	Even
Yards / play	6.02 #51	5.78 #86	WMU
PPA / play	+0.18 #45	+0.08 #58	Even
Success rate	45% #37	41% #59	WMU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

USA scoring against the WMU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
USA scored	6.3 #56	12.5 #5	18.8 #21	11.1 #2	4.9 #119	16.0 #28
WMU allowed	6.0 #90	9.8 #107	15.8 #105	8.8 #123	6.9 #72	15.7 #112

WMU scoring against the USA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WMU scored	5.5 #72	10.6 #26	16.1 #39	7.2 #43	6.2 #89	13.3 #68
USA allowed	6.7 #101	6.5 #44	13.2 #75	4.3 #28	7.9 #97	12.2 #62

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.