Louisiana vs TCU: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Isleta New Mexico Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 2:15 PM ESTIsleta New Mexico Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff47°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Louisiana

10-3 · Power #71

final

Final

TCU

8-4 · Power #34

▲ winner

Closing spread

TCU -9.5

✓ TCU W

Total

59.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

UL 26–36 TCU

✓ TCU (75%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -9.5

CloseTCU -9.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTCU -9.5

no move

CloseTCU -9.5

No change since the open

Total

Open61.5

▼ 2

Close59.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TCU -9.5 · unchangedmodel TCU -8.5

model TCU -8.5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTCU -9.5

CloseTCU -9.5

Total61.5 → 59.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TCU as a 9.5-point neutral-site favorite against UL, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: TCU won 34–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 59.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.7 against an average line of 8.2; 56.7 points a game (usually 54.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & situation	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	MSST vs TTU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-10	7–34	L	U58
Close	KU vs UNLV 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	49–36	W	O64.5
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	WSU vs CMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	21–24	L	U56
Close	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Close	HOU vs UL 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-5.25	23–16	W	U56.5
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	TOL vs MTSU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-10.5	24–31	L	O50
Close	CCU vs NIU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & situation	-12	47–41	L	O63.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UL WLWWL	7-5	58%	—	2-1
TCU LLWWW	5-6	45%	—	3-5

Venue/role: UL neutral, as underdog; TCU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
UL OUOOU	6-6	50%	10-3
TCU OOUOU	6-5	55%	8-4

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 47% of games with totals 55.5–63.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UL	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
TCU	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

UL−5.1 →−0.4▲ 4.7#70

TCU+7.0 →+7.2▲ 0.2#39

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

TCU

#22

Offense

Even

#24

#81

Defense

Even

#71

+0.8 #14

Turnovers

◀ UL better

−0.6 #111

64 plays #99

Pace

TCU faster ▶

68 plays #53

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When UL has the ball

Advantage: UL offense

	UL off	TCU def	Edge
Points / game	33.1 #33	26.4 #80	UL
Yards / play	6.69 #9	5.10 #34	UL
PPA / play	+0.28 #9	+0.15 #96	UL
Success rate	45% #38	42% #75	UL

When TCU has the ball

Advantage: TCU offense

	TCU off	UL def	Edge
Points / game	33.4 #28	23.4 #54	TCU
Yards / play	6.31 #29	5.37 #52	TCU
PPA / play	+0.25 #18	+0.14 #89	TCU
Success rate	47% #21	49% #128	TCU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

UL scoring against the TCU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
UL scored	5.7 #70	12.2 #6	17.9 #27	6.4 #58	8.8 #29	15.2 #44
TCU allowed	5.2 #70	7.8 #76	13.0 #70	6.0 #77	7.4 #85	13.4 #81

TCU scoring against the UL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TCU scored	7.5 #28	10.5 #28	18.0 #25	7.3 #37	8.1 #43	15.4 #35
UL allowed	3.6 #25	8.8 #97	12.5 #64	6.2 #87	4.8 #23	10.9 #44

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.