Iowa State vs Miami: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Pop-Tarts Bowl, 2024)

Sat, Dec 28, 2024, 3:30 PM ESTPop-Tarts Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff74°F9 mphgusts 22Wet0.0 mmWet Over 45% of 309 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Iowa State

10-3 · Power #24

▲ winner

Final

Miami

10-2 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

MIA -5.5

✓ ISU W

Total

61.5

▲ Over · 83 pts

Model before kickoff

ISU 26–32 MIA

✗ MIA (68%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -2.5

CloseMIA -5.5

Total52.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenISU -2.5

8 → MIA

CloseMIA -5.5

8 pts toward Miami

Total

Open52.5

▲ 9

Close61.5

Up 9 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ISU -2.5 · closed MIA -5.5 · moved 8 toward MIAmodel MIA -10

model MIA -10

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Neutral-site favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 56%, covered 38% (45 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenISU -2.5

CloseMIA -5.5

Total52.5 → 61.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like MIA as a 5.5-point neutral-site favorite against ISU, the favorite won 0, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: ISU won 42–41 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 83 points went over 61.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 3 against an average line of 7.5; 93 points a game (usually 53.2). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TENN vs PUR 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	45–48	L	O66.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ISU LWLWL	7-6	54%	0-1	1-0
MIA WWLWL	7-4	64%	—	7-4

Venue/role: ISU neutral, as underdog; MIA neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ISU OUOUO	7-6	54%	10-3
MIA UOUUO	8-3	73%	10-2

Went over in Q3. Of 169 earlier overs in games with totals 57.5–65.5, 30% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ISU	7-3 70%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
MIA	8-2 80%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ISU+4.2 →+9.8▲ 5.6#24

MIA+9.9 →+19.0▲ 9.1#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

ISU

Longer bar = better

MIA

#69

Offense

MIA better ▶

#57

Defense

MIA better ▶

#43

+0.5 #39

Turnovers

Even

+0.4 #41

71 plays #20

Pace

Even

71 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ISU has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	ISU off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	30.2 #51	23.9 #60	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #65	5.19 #41	MIA
PPA / play	+0.15 #58	+0.06 #43	Even
Success rate	41% #102	38% #26	MIA

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIA offense

	MIA off	ISU def	Edge
Points / game	44.2 #1	21.5 #32	MIA
Yards / play	7.60 #1	5.61 #72	MIA
PPA / play	+0.37 #2	+0.08 #56	MIA
Success rate	52% #2	41% #68	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

ISU scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ISU scored	6.1 #62	7.9 #75	14.0 #70	6.1 #62	10.2 #6	16.2 #25
MIA allowed	4.8 #58	8.8 #95	13.6 #80	5.8 #73	4.6 #15	10.3 #35

MIA scoring against the ISU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	11.0 #3	8.8 #58	19.8 #13	10.2 #4	14.2 #1	24.3 #1
ISU allowed	6.1 #91	6.5 #41	12.5 #67	4.8 #45	4.2 #9	9.0 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.