Rutgers vs Kansas State: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Rate Bowl, 2024)

Thu, Dec 26, 2024, 5:40 PM ESTRate Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Rutgers

7-5 · Power #51

final

Final

Kansas State

8-4 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

KSU -7.5

✓ RUTG W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 85 pts

Model before kickoff

RUTG 22–30 KSU

✓ KSU (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -6.5

CloseKSU -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKSU -6.5

1 → KSU

CloseKSU -7.5

1 pt toward Kansas State

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KSU -6.5 · closed KSU -7.5 · moved 1 toward KSUmodel KSU -9

model KSU -9

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 63% (32 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKSU -6.5

CloseKSU -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KSU as a 7.5-point neutral-site favorite against RUTG, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KSU won 44–41; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 85 points went over 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 6.3; 43.4 points a game (usually 53.8). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	ND vs SC 2022 · Postseason · close · similar season form & team ratings	-5	45–38	W	O50.5
Close	UTAH vs NU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	7–14	L	U44
Close	LIB vs EMU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-9.5	56–20	W	O58.5
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	ORST vs FLA 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	30–3	W	U51.75
Close	UTSA vs TROY 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-3	12–18	L	U56.5
Close	FRES vs WSU 2022 · Postseason · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	29–6	W	U54

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
RUTG LWWLW	6-6	50%	—	4-2
KSU LLLWL	4-8	33%	—	4-7

Venue/role: RUTG neutral, as underdog; KSU neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
RUTG OOUOO	8-4	67%	7-5
KSU OUUOU	6-6	50%	8-4

Went over in Q3. Of 419 earlier overs in games with totals 47.5–55.5, 34% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RUTG	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	7-3 70%
KSU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

RUTG+2.4 →+3.3▲ 0.9#55

KSU+11.5 →+11.3▼ 0.2#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

RUTG

Longer bar = better

KSU

#75

Offense

KSU better ▶

#37

#87

Defense

KSU better ▶

#27

+0.3 #46

Turnovers

◀ RUTG better

−0.1 #72

70 plays #29

Pace

◀ RUTG faster

64 plays #99

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When RUTG has the ball

Advantage: KSU defense

	RUTG off	KSU def	Edge
Points / game	27.9 #71	21.9 #35	KSU
Yards / play	5.42 #93	5.20 #43	KSU
PPA / play	+0.13 #72	+0.02 #26	KSU
Success rate	43% #64	36% #4	KSU

When KSU has the ball

Advantage: KSU offense

	KSU off	RUTG def	Edge
Points / game	29.8 #52	23.8 #59	Even
Yards / play	6.49 #20	6.02 #98	KSU
PPA / play	+0.20 #28	+0.16 #97	KSU
Success rate	45% #48	44% #94	KSU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

RUTG scoring against the KSU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
RUTG scored	4.8 #89	8.3 #68	13.2 #81	5.6 #76	9.2 #23	14.8 #50
KSU allowed	4.0 #33	8.4 #89	12.4 #64	3.8 #16	5.7 #44	9.5 #22

KSU scoring against the RUTG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KSU scored	5.9 #63	8.4 #65	14.3 #63	8.2 #21	7.3 #60	15.4 #34
RUTG allowed	5.3 #78	5.7 #22	11.0 #42	5.8 #72	7.1 #77	12.8 #72

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.