Indiana @ Notre Dame: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (College Football Playoff First Round, 2024)

Fri, Dec 20, 2024, 8:00 PM ESTCollege Football Playoff First Round · at Notre Dame

Weather at kickoff27°F6 mphgusts 16DryCold Over 50% of 115 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Indiana

11-1 · Power #10

final

Final

Notre Dame

11-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

ND -6.5

✓ ND W

Total

50.5

▼ Under · 44 pts

Model before kickoff

IU 23–29 ND

✓ ND (68%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -8.5

CloseND -6.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenND -8.5

2 → IU

CloseND -6.5

2 pts toward Indiana

Total

Open52.5

▼ 2

Close50.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ND -8.5 · closed ND -6.5 · moved 2 toward IUmodel ND -6.5 matches the line

model ND -6.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (148 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 62% (29 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenND -8.5

CloseND -6.5

Total52.5 → 50.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ND as a 6.5-point home favorite against IU, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 9 went over the total.

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This game: ND won 27–17; the favorite covered, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 44 points stayed under 50.5, as in 1 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 50%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.5 against an average line of 6.1; 60.3 points a game (usually 53.7). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	OSU vs IU 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & team ratings	-10.5	38–15	W	O52.5
Close	ND vs LOU 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-6.5	31–24	W	O45
Close	MICH vs PSU 2022 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-7	41–17	W	O48.75
Close	KSU vs UCF 2023 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-6	44–31	W	O52.5
Loose	LOU vs SMU 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & total	-6.5	27–34	L	O55
Loose	IU vs NEB 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	56–7	W	O48
Loose	ORST vs UCLA 2023 · Week 7 · loose	-3.5	36–24	W	O53.5
Loose	SMU vs PITT 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar spread	-7	48–25	W	O55.5
Loose	TEX vs KSU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar total	-3.75	33–30	L	O49.25
Loose	UCLA vs WSU 2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	25–17	W	U60

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IU WWLLW	9-3	75%	3-1	0-1
ND WWLWW	9-3	75%	3-3	8-3

Venue/role: IU away, as underdog; ND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IU UOUOO	9-3	75%	11-1
ND OOUOO	7-5	58%	11-1

Stayed under: it needed 28 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 54% of games with totals 46.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IU	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	8-2 80%
ND	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IU−3.2 →+18.0▲ 21.2#11

ND+18.9 →+21.8▲ 2.9#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

#12

Defense

Even

+1.3 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.3 #3

66 plays #79

Pace

◀ IU faster

63 plays #111

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IU has the ball

Even matchup

	IU off	ND def	Edge
Points / game	43.3 #2	13.6 #3	Even
Yards / play	6.67 #11	4.53 #6	Even
PPA / play	+0.32 #5	−0.18 #1	Even
Success rate	54% #1	37% #12	Even

When ND has the ball

Even matchup

	ND off	IU def	Edge
Points / game	39.8 #3	14.7 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.72 #9	4.13 #3	Even
PPA / play	+0.28 #11	−0.05 #7	Even
Success rate	47% #24	37% #16	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

IU scoring against the ND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IU scored	9.0 #10	13.0 #2	22.0 #4	9.1 #13	12.3 #2	21.3 #2
ND allowed	3.1 #12	3.7 #4	6.8 #4	2.3 #3	4.5 #13	6.8 #5

ND scoring against the IU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ND scored	8.4 #17	12.4 #7	20.8 #10	10.3 #4	8.7 #29	19.0 #4
IU allowed	1.1 #1	6.3 #39	7.4 #7	4.3 #29	3.0 #2	7.3 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.