South Carolina vs Illinois: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Cheez-It Citrus Bowl, 2024)

Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 3:00 PM ESTCheez-It Citrus Bowl · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff76°F11 mphgusts 22DryWeather watch ›

South Carolina

9-3 · Power #13

final

Final

Illinois

9-3 · Power #44

▲ winner

Closing spread

SC -9.5

✓ ILL W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

SC 28–18 ILL

✗ SC (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -10.5

CloseSC -9.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSC -10.5

1 → ILL

CloseSC -9.5

1 pt toward Illinois

Total

Open47.5

▲ 2

Close49.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SC -10.5 · closed SC -9.5 · moved 1 toward ILLmodel SC -11.5

model SC -11.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 49% (144 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSC -10.5

CloseSC -9.5

Total47.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SC as a 9.5-point neutral-site favorite against ILL, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: ILL won 21–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 73%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 7.7; 40.1 points a game (usually 54.6). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MINN vs WVU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-5.75	18–6	W	U44.75
Close	KSU vs NCSU 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	28–19	W	U48.5
Close	UTAH vs NU 2023 · Postseason · close	-6.5	7–14	L	U44
Close	BYU vs UAB 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-6	28–31	L	O54.25
Close	FLA vs UCF 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	17–29	L	U56
Close	MINN vs SYR 2022 · Postseason · close · similar situation & team ratings	-10.5	28–20	L	O44.75
Close	TROY vs DUKE 2023 · Postseason · close · similar season form & situation	-6.75	10–17	L	U44.25
Close	MSST vs TTU 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & spread	-10	7–34	L	U58
Close	WISC vs ASU 2021 · Postseason · close	-7.75	20–13	L	U42.5
Close	FRES vs UTEP 2021 · Postseason · close · similar situation & season form	-13	31–24	L	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every FBS game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SC WWLWW	9-3	75%	—	4-2
ILL LLWWW	8-4	67%	1-0	5-2

Venue/role: SC neutral, as favorite; ILL neutral, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OUOOU	7-5	58%	9-3
ILL UUOOO	5-7	42%	9-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 54% of games with totals 45.5–53.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SC	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	7-3 70%
ILL	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 137 FBS teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SC+5.6 →+14.8▲ 9.2#14

ILL−0.5 →+4.3▲ 4.8#47

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

ILL

#52

Offense

Even

#52

#26

Defense

◀ SC better

#74

+0.2 #53

Turnovers

ILL better ▶

+0.6 #31

69 plays #48

Pace

◀ SC faster

62 plays #118

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SC has the ball

Advantage: SC offense

	SC off	ILL def	Edge
Points / game	31.6 #40	22.1 #35	Even
Yards / play	5.95 #58	5.47 #61	Even
PPA / play	+0.17 #47	+0.12 #81	SC
Success rate	43% #62	46% #118	SC

When ILL has the ball

Advantage: SC defense

	ILL off	SC def	Edge
Points / game	28.9 #63	17.8 #12	SC
Yards / play	5.86 #67	4.73 #12	SC
PPA / play	+0.24 #20	+0.01 #18	Even
Success rate	44% #56	41% #62	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; PPA from CollegeFootballData (garbage time excluded). Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 134 FBS teams

SC scoring against the ILL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SC scored	7.3 #33	8.7 #61	16.0 #38	5.8 #69	9.8 #12	15.6 #34
ILL allowed	4.7 #54	6.5 #43	11.2 #45	4.3 #27	6.2 #56	10.4 #37

ILL scoring against the SC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ILL scored	6.3 #60	7.8 #78	14.0 #71	5.3 #83	8.4 #37	13.8 #64
SC allowed	3.3 #16	6.6 #47	9.9 #23	3.7 #14	4.3 #11	7.9 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.